【外交政策0111】把中国当做政治靶子真的会管用吗？

lilyma06

Taking Swings at ChinaDoes it really work to use Beijing as a political punching bag?
   BY SCOTT CLEMENT |            JANUARY 11, 2012http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/taking_swings_at_china


      
President BarackObama and his eventual Republican opponent will spend much of the year focusingon who is best equipped to create jobs and improve the economy, with Americans'ambivalent public views about China's economic rise a possible centerpiece.

Publicopinion surveys suggest the American public is quite receptive to anti-Chinarhetoric, particularly when it comes to that country's emergence as an economicpower.
More thansix in 10 adults see China's economic expansion hurting the United States,according to a November CBSNews/New York Times poll, asentiment that spans traditional partisan divides. About as many calledcompetition with China a "major threat" to the economic well being of the UnitedStates in a December PewResearch Center poll, with nearly nine in 10 saying China is at least aminor threat. The intensity of China antipathy is limited. A slender 12 percentin the CBS poll classified China as an enemy, with four times as many sayingthe nation is "friendly, but not an ally."
The target: Non-college whites
Tough talkon China could play a particularly strong role as candidates try to court whitevoters who lack college degrees. Occupying the front cover of thelatest Atlantic magazine, many ofthese voters have personally experienced the impact of China's rise, seeingmanufacturing jobs go overseas. The December Pew poll found concern aboutChina's threat to the U.S. economy peaked among whites without collegeeducations.
Whiteswithout college degrees also make up large swaths of the electorate in critical"rust belt" states, many of which are up for grabs in the 2012 election. In2008, non-college whites made up at least half of voters in Ohio and Michiganand nearly four in 10 voters in Pennsylvania. Obama lost non-college whites by18 percentage points nationally in2008, and he trails among this group in a contest with Mitt Romney by 20points in a DecemberWashington Post-ABC News poll.
Blame Obama?
Part of thereason China may receive negative attention is that Americans have yet todecisively blame Obama for the nation's continued economic troubles. A DecemberCBSNews poll found 12 percent blaming the Obama administration for theeconomic conditions; the same number blamed Wall Street, while slightly moreblamed Congress (16 percent) and the Bush administration (22 percent). Nearly aquarter blamed all of these groups.
Republicanscandidates have focused sharply on the president and the economy, blaming himfor continued high unemployment and slow job creation. But they haven'tadvocated a more friendly relationship with China, especially on the issue oftrade. In one example, though critical of Obama's approach, Romney favors an even stronger stance,opting to designate China as a currency manipulator and attacking "unfair tradepractices."
Patriotic undertones
A majorundercurrent to the 2012 election is the sense that American influence in theworld is on the wane. More than seven in 10 said this in an October poll by Time magazine and SRBI, and most ofthis group said China's rise has played a role. Romney has run with thissentiment -- offering his candidacy as an antithesis to Obama's economicallydistressed first term -- labeling his jobs plan "believe in America" and his foreignpolicy approach "anAmerican century."
Thepatriotic tones sound quite similar to Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America"campaign in 1984, which was convincing thanks to a booming economic recoveryafter twin recessions during his first presidential term. Obama can'tboast of such booming growth, but would certainly like to claim credit forsustained economic improvement if the unemployment rate continues to fall thisyear.
WhetherChina comes to the forefront of the 2012 election or not, Americans' beliefthat China is hurting the U.S. economy looks to play a larger role in U.S.politics in the future.




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