【中文标题】吉姆·奥尼尔：英国GDP数据的真实性比中国的还糟糕
【原文标题】Accuracy of UK GDP data 'worse than China', says Jim O'Neill
【来源地址】http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/festival-of-business/9620479/Accuracy-of-UK-GDP-data-worse-than-China-says-Jim-ONeill.html
【译者】doraemonls
【翻译方式】人工
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-3384808-1-1.html
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【译文】 ********************************************************************* 一些专用的词汇不是很确定，希望大家拍砖~ *********************************************************************
Britain must abandon its “obsession” with the eurozonecrisis to look to the true deciders of its future, said Jim O’Neill, theeconomist who defined the “BRIC” economies, as he voiced doubts over officialUK growth figures. 经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔称，英国必须从抛弃欧元区危机带来的困扰，真正的思考自己的未来何去何从。曾经，奥尼尔定义了“金砖四国”的概念；现在，他不掩饰自己对英国经济增长数据的怀疑。
The UK's economic potential depends far more on howbusinesses ride the growth coming from China and the rest of the world’s newereconomic powers, argued Mr O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. 吉姆是高盛资产管理公司的主席。他认为，英国经济的增长潜力十分依赖于中国和 世界其他新兴经济体的增长。
“Peopleshould not be as obsessed about this [eurozone] issue as they seem to be inthis country – and certainly our political leaders should not be blaming all ofour problems on them [the euro members],” he told The Telegraph’s Festival ofBusiness. 吉姆在电讯报的采访中说：“英国国民似乎很受欧元区危机的影响，但这其实不必要。当然了，我们的政治领袖也不应当将我们自己所有问题都 归根于欧盟成员。”
“It’snot really 'what about the [US] fiscal cliff', or whether Greece will survivein the eurozone or not. It’s what is going on in China, Brazil, Russia, India,and some of these other nations that are becoming so important to us aswell." “欧元区危机并不是美国的财政悬崖，也不是希腊能否在欧元区生存下来的问题。这关乎到那些在金砖四国和其他对英国越来越重要的国家里正在发生的事情。”
Last year China’s growing economy created the equivalent ofa new Greece every three months, he said. Together the BRICs – Brazil, RussiaIndia and China – created the equivalent of a new Italy, the world’s eighthbiggest economy, in just 12 months. 他说：去年中国每三个月的经济增长都相当于一个新的希腊。金砖四国的总产，相当于一个新的世界第八大经济体，意大利12个月的产量。
“Thisis the big opportunity for Britain’s post crisis future in terms of raising ourexports to these nations,” Mr O’Neill argued. 奥尼尔说：“在后危机时代，英国最大的机遇就是增加对这些国家的出口。”
He pointed to Germany, which he said now exports more toBRIC countries than it does to France, insulating it from the effects of theeurozone crisis in other euro countries. In the next 18 months, it is “quitepossible” that Germany will export more to China than it will to any othercountry in the world. 奥尼尔提到了德国，他说，德国对金砖四国的出口相对法国更多，这使其受到的欧元区危机的影响比其他各国更少。未来的十八个月，德国对中国的出口会多于对其他任何一个国家的出口。
The next decade, as he defined it, will be about Chinabecome “more like us” – boosting consumption, exporting less – and the UKbecoming more like China. 奥尼尔认为，未来的十年将是中国“更像我们”的十年，消费增加，出口减少，与此同时英国会更像中国。
Mr O’Neill also voiced his “growing suspicious” is that theUK’s economic data is not accurately reflecting growth. “The guys that publishthe GDP data are worse at it than the Chinese,” he said. 奥尼尔也提到他对增长率的怀疑，即英国的经济数据并不十分精确的反映经济的增长率。他说：“发布GDP数据的人比中国人的还要差”。
Next week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shouldreport that the economy grew between 0.7pc and 1pc in the third quarter of thisyear, he said. However he said he could guarantee that the initial estimatecoming from statisticians will be later revised. 奥尼尔说下一周，国家统计局应该会公布第三季度的经济增长率在0.7%至1%之间。然而他也说他保证最初的统计数据今后还会修改。
The ONS, which gives its first growth estimates faster thanmany of its counterparts in other countries, has defended its track record inthe face of such criticism. Some argue that early estimates of growth arehelpful, even if later revised. 国家统计局向来都是第一个给出的增长的估算，比其他国家类似机构都要早。现在，面临类似批评后，国家统计局给出了辩护，有人指出，较早的预测是有益的，尽管今后可能会更改数据。
Looking to 2013, around two thirds of attendees in theaudience predicted via a poll that the UK would grow up to 1pc next year, witharound 30pc prepared for growth of between 1pc and 3pc. Just the minorityremaining thought that the UK economy would shrink. 展望2013，一项民意调查显示，大约2/3的民众认为英国明年的经济增长将是1百分点，大约30%的民众认为在1-3个百分点之间。剩余的少数人认为明年经济将会萎缩。
Addressing Europe, Mr O’Neill described the eurozone crisisas the “most unnecessary crisis” he had seen in his 30 years in finance. 对整个欧洲来说，奥尼尔称欧元区危机是他进入金融行业30年来“最不必要的危机”。
Only one of its members, Finland, would today meet thecriteria to join the currency as defined by Germany and its other membersoriginally. However, he did not see the situation as a sovereign debt crisis,arguing that eurozone has the money to save itself. 只有芬兰这个成员国，如今最符合当年德国和其他成员国定义的货币政策。然而， 奥尼尔也并未看到主权债务危机的情况，他认为欧元区有足够的资金来拯救自己。
The problem is that domestic politics is interfering withthe area operating as a true shared currency region, he said. 奥尼尔说，问题在于国内的政治正在干扰这个英国成为一个真正货币区的。
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