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【中文标题】胡的十年
【原文标题】The Hu Era
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】ALICIA P.Q. WITTMEYER
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/07/the_hu_era_in_pictures#0
中国的变化既迅猛无比又残酷无情。当胡在十年前走上共产党主席的位置时，中国的经济规模仅略高于意大利，它刚刚加入WTO，游走在国际纷争问题的边缘。
这样的局面已经一去不返了。从2002年开始，中国在现代历史上第一次走上了超级势力的红地毯，把寻找战略资源的触角伸向非洲和拉丁美洲，在军事投入上一掷千金，在环太平洋地区营造自己的影响力。在本土，2008年的北京奥运会被当成一次在国际舞台上炫耀国家进步的展览，它积极推动了——有些人认为积极的过头了——新道路、机场和高速铁路的建设。但是，中国翻天覆地的变化绝不仅仅是几座虚饰、浮华的桥梁和摩天大楼。《外交政策》在这里选出10张图片，来展示中国在过去十年中究竟发生了怎样的变化。
北京天安门，中国庆祝距2008年奥运会开幕一周年。
中国在超级势力的座位上越坐越稳，它的手在地球上也越伸越远，尤其是在非洲，中国不顾一切地抢夺各类资源为其经济扩张助力。2003年，中国与非洲的贸易总额为185亿美元，2011年达到1600亿美元。这样的伙伴关系为非洲国家带来了新道路和学校，并且让这个大陆的经济以每年5％的幅度增长。但并非所有的人都笑逐颜开。今年，南非总统祖玛警告这种不平衡的合作关系，说非洲在与中国人合作时，应当记住“以前与欧洲的经济合作教训”。
中国大使与象牙海岸总统阿拉萨内•瓦塔拉在一条高速公路的开工仪式上，这条高速公路将连接首都阿比让和南部城市。项目预算超过1.174亿美元，中方出资1亿美元。
早在2002年，中国从未进行过一次人工航天实验。今天，它已经积累了四次成功的经验——第一次是在2003年成功发射太空研究实验工作室，并且计划在2025年左右登月。中国的太空扩张野心与大规模的军事现代化步伐齐头并进，过去十年里，几乎每年的军费开支都保持两位数增长。这些钱用来建设更加专业的军队、秘密行动机构、军事卫星和9月份试航的第一艘航空母舰。
2011年9月，甘肃省发射的长征2号运载火箭，搭载中国首个太空实验室，代号“天宫”。
与此同时，中国的互联网用户数量井喷状增长，中国目前有5.38亿互联网用户，这个数字还在不断增加。尽管很多人上网的目的仅仅是消遣和娱乐，但是中国的网民越来越擅于躲避政府的监察工具。
2010年2月，年轻人在北京一家网吧中玩网络游戏。
过去十年里，中国明显变老了。这要感谢毛泽东在上世纪中叶鼓励生育，还有邓小平在1979年采取的计划生育政策，让人口增长高峰迅速消失。数字是触目惊心的：政府预测到2015年，中国60岁以上的人口将达到2.2亿，北京为此一筹莫展。传统的中国社会推崇老人由自己的家人照看，因此社会福利网络欠发达。在现代化的进程中，曾经让老有所依的家庭观念逐渐淡漠了，中国的老人前途未卜。
2011年，中国河南郑州，一群老人在公园里聚集。
中国在2001年底正式加入WTO，这是它未来十年经济发展的里程碑。中国在2006年超过英国，成为世界第四大经济体。然后继续飞速前进，在2009年和2011年超过德国和日本，成为世界第二大经济体。与此同时，中国公司疯狂涌入世界财富500强榜单，包括中石化和中石油在内的国有能源企业在今年盘踞在榜首。中国的银行更是获取了高额的利润，去年他们的盈利占据了全球所有银行盈利的三分之一。
2009年7月，中国工商银行在北京的一家支行。工商银行去年税前利润为432亿，是世界上盈利最高的银行。
尽管GDP在过去十年中增长了4倍，让共产党得以牢牢把握政权，但是这个国家也面临着许多严重得足以撼动其政权合法性的丑闻。首当其冲的是2003年的非典，世界卫生组织谴责政府掩盖中国病情的严重性，阻碍了遏制疾病传播的努力。2008年，四川爆发的8.0级地震导致7万人丧生，40万人受伤。四川省周边的学校和医院的倒塌，让掩盖在中国建设热潮下的腐败和低劣的质量遭受了严重的质疑。再加上食品安全问题和越来越多财产来源不明的富有官员，引起了对权力转换后改革的呼吁声。
四川地震一周年之际，一个女人坐在北川废墟上哭泣。
今年，中国的城市人口数量第一次超过了农村人口数量，这个国家东南沿海地区经济的蓬勃发展依然在吸引着内地的流动人员。中国目前有160座一百万以上人口的大城市，美国只有9座。过去十年里大规模而又稳定的人口流动给社会带来了巨大的动荡：传统建筑物被纷纷拆除，盖起高楼大厦；城市用水紧张；中国的社会福利体系让数百万流动人口在离开家乡之后无法享受基本的社会服务。目前，中央政府在为流动工人提供更多社会福利方面的政策努力，遭到了地方政府和城市居民的激烈抵制，但城市化进程依然没有放缓的迹象。
2011年7月，流动工人来到北京一座汽车站。
中国的本土消费在过去十年里保持着两位数的增长。其中包括奢侈品消费，比如名牌服装和鞋——世界奢侈品协会在2011年的报告中预测，中国将在今年取代日本，成为世界奢侈品消费第一大国。还有旅游，今年上半年，有3900万中国大陆居民到海外旅游，是5年前同期数字的一倍。分析人士称，中国的消费市场依然处于两极分化的阶段——超级富裕阶层到欧洲旅游、购物；新兴的中产阶级平均每天消费10到100美元。
2012年6月，中国女人走过北京一家普拉达商店。
笼罩着中国城市的污染在过去十年里得到了一些改善。世界银行未发布的一项研究显示，113个主要城市的污染指数，从2003年到2009年都有所下降，这是包括迁移工厂和减少烧煤等措施起到的作用。尽管如此，美国大使馆在2010年在推特上发布的空气质量监测报告引起了强烈的反响，称北京的空气质量“极坏”。北京的污染在2008年之后又呈上升的趋势，奥运会期间的特别措施给这个城市带来了短暂的蓝天。
其它形式的污染在过去十年里也有所增加。11月份发布的中国八年海洋环境调查结果并不好看：调查发现排入中国湿地的化学制剂、粪便、重金属和杀虫剂越来越多。今天，在经济风驰电掣般前进的过程中，中国领导人依然在苦苦思索一个平衡点——让数百万人脱离贫困，和所付出的代价——环境破坏、社会动荡等等。
2012年1月，北京的重度污染和地标级建筑物中国中央电视台大楼。
原文：
In China, the change has been fast, and it has been remorseless. When Hu Jintao assumed the chairmanship of the Communist Party a decade ago, China's economy was only a bit larger than Italy's, it had just joined the WTO, and it stayed on the sidelines of global disputes.
No longer. Since 2002, China has gradually donned the mantle of superpower for the first time in modern history, locking up access to strategic resources across Africa and Latin America, pouring billions into its military, and throwing its newfound weight around the Pacific. At home, the 2008 Beijing Olympics, seen as an opportunity to showcase the country's progress on a global stage drove massive -- some would say too massive -- in new roads, airports, and high-speed rail. But the sweeping changes in China's fortunes go far beyond a few flashy bridges and skyscrapers. Here, Foreign Policy has selected 10 images that shows how China has changed in the last decade.
Above, China celebrates the one-year countdown to the 2008 Olympics in Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
As China has grown more comfortable in a superpower role, its reach in the world has broadened - in particular, to Africa, as China scrambles for raw materials to fuel its economic expansion. In 2003, China's trade with Africa was worth about $18.5 billion; by 2011 it had reached $160 billion. The partnership has brought African countries roads and schools, and contributed to the continent growing at a steady clip of almost 5 percent over the last few years. But not all are pleased. This year South African president Jacob Zuma cautioned against the unbalanced nature of the relationship and said that Africa should bear in mind its "past economic experience with Europe" when considering Chinese deals.
Above, China's ambassador stands with Ivory Coast president Alassane Ouattara at the official launch of construction on a highway linking Abidjan, the capital, to the south of the country. The project is expected to cost $117.4 million; China will provide $100 million.
As early as 2002, China had never launched a manned space mission. Today, it has four under its belt -- the first was in 2003 -- a research laboratory in space, and plans to put a human on the moon by around 2025. China's expanded space ambitions have coincided with a massive military modernization effort that has seen defense spending rise by double-digit percentages almost every year of the past decade. That money has gone toward building more professional soldiers as well as new stealth fighters, military satellites, and the country's first aircraft carrier, launched in September.
Pictured above is the September 2011 launch in Gansu province of a Long March 2F rocket carrying China's first space laboratory, dubbed Tiangong, or "Heavenly Palace."
A 2002 study by Harvard Law School found that China had the most extensive system of Internet censorship in the world, denying users access to 19,000 websites, including those run by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. But in the decade since, the Great Firewall has only grown taller. Sites that were once only temporarily blocked -- Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter -- have been permanently banned since 2008. The government has stepped up efforts to monitor Internet activity, banishing sensitive words from social networking sites, and hiring monitors to "steer" online conversations. At the same time, Internet usage in China has skyrocketed -- there are currently 538 million Internet users in China and counting. And while many use it for recreation, China's online population has become increasingly sophisticated about staying a few steps ahead of the government's censorship tools.
Above, young men play online games at a café in Beijing in February 2010.
The past decade has seen China grow steadily older, thanks to Mao Zedong, who encouraged a population boom in the middle of the last century, and Deng Xiaoping, who enacted a one-child policy beginning in 1979 that quickly cut that boom short. The numbers are staggering: The government estimates that by 2015, China will have approximately 220 million people over the age of 60. Beijing is struggling to plan for what to do with its elderly; China, traditionally a society where family members look after their own, has a limited safety net. And yet the family ties that once guaranteed that aging parents would have somewhere to go are unraveling in the process of modernization, leaving many of China's elderly facing an uncertain future.
Above, a group of elderly Chinese people gather at a park in Zhengzhou, in China's central Henan province, in 2011.
China officially joined the WTO at the end of 2001, kicking off a decade of economic milestones. China passed Britain as the world's fourth-largest economy in 2006, then continued its relentless march, passing Germany in 2009 and Japan in 2011 to become the second-largest economy in the world. With the expansion, Chinese companies have surged up the Fortune 500 list, with state-owned energy companies like Sinopec Group and China National Petroleum all claiming top spots this year. Chinese banks in particular have recorded soaring returns, accounting for almost a third of global bank profit last year.
Above, people walk past a branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Beijing in July 2009. ICBC was the world's most profitable bank last year, with a pretax profit of of $43.2 billion.
While the past 10 years have seen a GDP that grew more than fourfold, helping to maintain the Communist Party's vice-like grip on power, the country has also faced scandals outrageous enough to severely test its legitimacy. First was SARS, in 2003, when the World Health Organization accused the government of covering up the seriousness of China's outbreak, which hindered efforts to slow the disease's spread. In 2008, an earthquake measuring 8.0 in magnitude struck Sichuan province, killing around 70,000 people and injuring almost 400,000. Schools and hospitals around the province collapsed, raising serious questions about the corruption and incompetence lurking beneath the surface of China's building boom. These, along with ongoing food safety issues and the proliferation of suspiciously wealthy officials, have fueled calls for reform leading up to the power transfer.
Above, a woman cries amid the ruins of Beichuan county in Sichuan province on the one-year anniversary of the earthquake.
This year saw China's urban population exceed its rural population for the first time ever, as economic growth in the country's booming southern and eastern seaboards continues to lure migrants from China's rural heartland. Today, more than 160 cities in China have a population of over 1 million, compared with nine in the United States. The steady mass migration over the past decade has meant tremendous social upheaval: traditional architecture demolished to make way for tower blocks, cities running out of water, and millions of migrants who -- because of the way China's safety net is structured -- don't have access to social services outside of their hometowns. So far, central government reform proposals to give more services to migrant workers and their families have met with fierce resistance from some local governments and urban residents, but the urbanization trend shows few signs of stopping.
Above, migrant workers arrive at a bus station in Beijing in July 2011.
Consumer spending in China has enjoyed double-digit growth for the past decade. It's come in the form of spending on luxury goods like name-brand shoes and clothing -- the World Luxury Association in their 2011 annual report predicted China would replace Japan as the world's top consumer of luxury goods this year -- and on travel: nearly 39 million mainland Chinese headed overseas in the first half of this year, double the number from 5 years ago. Analysts say the consumer market in China is still polarized between a superrich class taking shopping trips to Europe and an emerging middle class spending between $10 and $100 a day on average.
Above, Chinese women walk past a Prada store in Beijing in June 2012.
The infamous smog hanging over Chinese cities has actually improved in some areas over the past decade. An unreleased World Bank study of government data found that pollution had fallen from 2003 to 2009 in 113 major cities, helped by the relocation of factories and reduced coal burning. Still, 2010 saw a viral tweet from an air-quality monitoring feed run by the U.S. Embassy describing Beijing air quality as "crazy bad," and pollution levels have continued to edge up in Beijing since 2008, when a push before the Olympics brought a brief period of blue skies.
The past decade has seen an increase in other forms of pollution as well. The results of China's eight-year national marine survey, released in November, have not been pretty: It found, among other things, an increase of pollution discharged into Chinese wetlands in the form of chemical fertilizers, manure, and in some cases heavy metals and insecticides. Today, China's leadership continues to struggle with finding a balance between the push for economic growth that has lifted millions from poverty and the casualties -- in the form of environmental damage, social turmoil, and others -- that come about from that kind of unrelenting forward sprint.
Above, heavy pollution hangs over Beijing and the landmark China Central Television headquarters building in January 2012.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-11-12 12:47
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发表于 2012-11-12 14:32
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