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[外媒编译] 经济学人:特朗普会如何重塑美国的营商环境?

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发表于 2016-12-14 08:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
政商关系|《经济学人》:特朗普上台后,将会如何重塑美国的营商环境?2016-12-13 从余启 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。
我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。
欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读:马克思教导我们说,经济基础决定上层建筑,上层建筑反作用于经济基础。对于生在新中国、长在红旗下的亿万人民,这个显然是条普世真理,不仅适用于社会主义,也适用于资本主义。

其实,对于拥有五千年灿烂文明的中华民族来说,有关基础与上层之间的这个关系,在有些人看来,完全用不着劳烦源自西方的马克思来教导,“水能载舟、亦能覆舟”的道理,两千多年前就已传遍中华大地。

凡是理论,都是创造出来的,不管什么理论,都源于实践,但同时又都高于实践,最终也需要用于实践。只有当理论被应用于实践,发挥出其所应具有的作用和意义时,才能算是实现了它的价值。

马克思的理论,也不例外。依照马克思的理论观点进行分析,美国大选,波涛汹涌的民愤把特朗普送上了总统宝座,这应该算是经济基础对上层建筑所具有的决定性最显著的表现之一。

基础的决定性上台表演完了之后,上层建筑起反作用的时候也就该到了。特朗普所起的反作用,也已开始浸透美国、传遍世界


                                                                            7:38                      Trump's business rules             来自我与我们的世界                        
The president and corporations
美国总统与美国公司
How Donald Trump is changing the rules for American business
特朗普将如何重塑美国的营商环境?

The president-elect has a new approach to dealing with corporate America. It is not all good news
美国候任总统特朗普,对美国公司有一套新玩儿法,但其中所包含的内容,自然不会全是积极的

HIS inauguration is still six weeks away but Donald Trump has already sent shock waves through American business. Chief executives—and their companies’ shareholders—are giddy at the president-elect’s promises to slash burdensome regulation, cut taxes and boost the economy with infrastructure spending. Blue-collar workers are cock-a-hoop at his willingness to bully firms into saving their jobs.
特朗普距离正式入主白宫还有六周,但他早已在美国商界掀起阵阵巨浪。特朗普承诺要精简管制、要降低税负、要扩大基建投资刺激经济增长,这都让各大公司高管以及股东们欣喜若狂。特朗普还摆出威逼架势要求公司不得裁员,这也让蓝领阶层感觉特朗普就是靠山,看到了保住工作饭碗的希望,并因此而得意洋洋。

1.giddy ['gɪdɪ] adj. 头晕的;眼花的;令人眼花缭乱的;轻浮的;vt. 使晕眩;使眼花缭乱;vi. 眼花;眩晕If you feel giddy with delight or excitement, you feel so happy or excited that you find it hard to think or act normally. (高兴或激动地) 发狂的
2.slash [slæʃ] vt. 猛砍;鞭打;严厉批评;大幅度裁减或削减;vi. 猛砍;严厉批评;n. 削减;斜线;猛砍;砍痕;沼泽低地
3.cock-a-hoop ['kɔkə'hu:p] adv. 得意洋洋地;自负的;adj. 得意洋洋的
4.bully ['bʊlɪ] n. 欺凌弱小者;土霸;adj. 第一流的;特好的;vt. 欺负;威吓;vi. 欺侮人;adv. 很;十分;int. 好;妙

In the past few weeks, Mr Trump has lambasted Apple for not producing more bits of its iPhone in America; harangued Ford about plans to move production of its Lincoln sports-utility vehicles; and lashed out at Boeing, not long after the firm’s chief executive had mused publicly about the risks of a protectionist trade policy. Most dramatically, Mr Trump bribed and cajoled Carrier, a maker of air-conditioning units in Indiana, to change its plans and keep 800 jobs in the state rather than move them to Mexico. One poll suggests that six out of ten Americans view Mr Trump more favourably after the Carrier deal. This muscularity is proving popular.
过去的几周里,特朗普接连发难呵斥苹果没把更多的iPhone手机生产放在美国,训责福特准备把林肯SUV生产搬出美国,并在波音高管公开场合谨慎谈到保护主义贸易政策的潜在风险后立马又开始抨击波音。最令人关注的,莫过于特朗普对印第安纳州一家名叫Carrier的空调配件制造商的收买,诱使该公司改变主意不再把生产搬至墨西哥,从而为美国挽救了800个就业机会。一项民调显示,有六成美国民众认为,特朗普成功摆平Carrier后,其形象得到很大提升。特朗普的这种攻势,越来越受到美国民众的欢迎

1.lambast[læm'best] vt. 鞭打, 狠打, 严厉责骂
2.harangue[hə'ræŋ] n. 长篇大论;高谈阔论;热烈的演说;vt. 向…滔滔不绝地演讲;大声训斥;vi. 高谈阔论;慷慨陈词
3.lash out  猛击;猛烈抨击;大肆挥霍attack in speech or writing
4.muse[mjuːz] n. 沉思;冥想;vt. 沉思;沉思地说;vi. 沉思;凝望
5.bribe[braɪb] vt. 贿赂,收买;vi. 行贿;n. 贿赂
6.cajole[kə'dʒəʊl] vt. 以甜言蜜语哄骗;勾引
7.muscularity [,mʌskju'lærəti] n. 力大;肌肉发达;强壮

Popular but problematic. The emerging Trump strategy towards business has some promising elements, but others that are deeply worrying. The promise lies in Mr Trump’s enthusiasm for corporate-tax reform, his embrace of infrastructure investment and in some parts of his deregulatory agenda. The dangers stem, first, from the muddled mercantilism that lies behind his attitude to business, and, second, in the tactics—buying off and attacking individual companies—that he uses to achieve his goals. American capitalism has flourished thanks to the predictable application of rules. If, at the margin, that rules-based system is superseded by an ad hoc approach in which businessmen must take heed and pay homage to the whim of King Donald, the long-term damage to America’s economy will be grave.
尽管受到欢迎,但却是有问题的。特朗普针对商界的策略逐渐浮出水面,其中不乏一些积极方面,但有些方面却是令人深感忧虑的。积极的方面在于,特朗普对公司税改革的赞成、对基建投资的拥护,以及对放松某些管制的支持。令人感到忧虑的,首先是特朗普对待商界的态度的背后隐藏着的那种以商为本的昏聩特性,其次是特朗普为达目的对特定公司不惜使用收买或攻击的那种伎俩。美国的资本主义之所以能茁壮成长,主要得益于商业规则的可预测性。若是那种基于规则的体制被某种朝秦暮楚的套路所取代,商人们必须察言观色、必须忠诚于特朗普的呼风唤雨,那么,长此以往,对美国经济来说,将是灾难性的。

1.muddled ['mʌdld] adj. 糊涂的;混乱的;头脑昏昏然的;v. 使一团糟(muddle的过去分词)
2.mercantilism ['mɜːk(ə)ntaɪ,lɪz(ə)m] n. 重商主义;商人本性;商业主义
3.buy off v. 收买;出钱以摆脱
4.supersede[,suːpə'siːd] vt. 取代,代替;紧接着……而到来;vi. 推迟行动
5.ad hoc [,æd'hɔk]  adj. 特别的;临时;专设;adv. 特别地
6.heed [hiːd]  vi. 注意,留心;n. 注意到;留心到;vt. 注意,留心
7.homage ['hɒmɪdʒ]  n. 敬意;尊敬;效忠
8.whim [wɪm] n. 奇想;一时的兴致;怪念头;幻想

Helping the few at the expense of the many
为了少数人,牺牲多数人
Start with the confusions in Mr Trump’s philosophy. The president-elect believes that America’s workers are harmed when firms move production to cheaper locations offshore. That is why he wants to impose a 35% tariff on the products of any company that moves its production abroad. Such tariffs would be hugely disruptive. They would make goods more expensive for American consumers. By preventing American firms from maximising their efficiency using complex supply chains, they would reduce their competitiveness, deter new investment and, eventually, hurt workers’ wages across the economy. They would also encourage a tit-for-tat response.
首先,来看看特朗普一直以来所秉持的那种愚昧理念。在特朗普看来,美国公司若把生产搬至海外成本更低的国家,美国的工人就会受损,这也是特朗普想要对生产搬到海外的公司的产品征收35%关税的原因。课征这样的关税,简直是昏庸至极。那样做的话,将导致商品价格飙升,无疑会有损于美国消费者。而且,不让美国公司通过复杂的全球供应链提升效率,他们的竞争力就会下降,投资扩产意愿也会降低,最终,受损的将会是整个经济体系中的工薪阶层。同时,对进口商品征收高关税,也将引起以眼还眼、以牙还牙式的报复。

1.disruptive [dɪs'rʌptɪv] adj. 破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的
2.deter [dɪ'tɜː] vt. 制止,阻止;使打消念头
3.tit-for-tat以牙还牙,针锋相对

Precisely because tariffs would be so costly, many businessmen discount Mr Trump’s protectionism as mere rhetoric. Plenty of them see the focus on individual firms as a politically canny (and thus sensible) substitute. If Mr Trump can convince American workers that he is on their side using only a barrage of tweets and a few back-room deals like the one with Carrier, there may be no need to resort to tariffs. To profit from a business-friendly bonanza, the logic goes, clever executives simply have to make sure they stay in the president’s good books.
正因为加征关税成本太高,商界很多人士认为,特朗普的保护主义,只是嘴上说说而已,特朗普针对特定公司的言行举止,也不过是政治算计,只是用以为他的保护主义形象打掩护。若特朗普只需通过发几通推文、搞几笔像与Carrier达成的幕后交易,就可说服美国工薪阶层,让他们相信自己是和他们站在一起的,那么到时可能就不需要采取加征关税的措施。通过一锤子买卖就可以搞定并能从中受益,这样的逻辑确实有点道理,由此看来,只要不进入特朗普的黑名单,公司高管们便能高枕无忧

1.discount ['dɪskaʊnt] n. 折扣;贴现率;vi. 贴现;打折扣出售商品;vt. 打折扣;将…贴现;贬损;低估;忽视
2.canny ['kænɪ] adj. 精明的,谨慎的;节约的
3.barrage ['bærɑːʒ] n. 弹幕;阻塞;齐射式攻击;[水利] 拦河坝;vt. 以密集炮火进攻;vi. 以密集火力阻击
4.bonanza [bə'nænzə] n. 富矿带;带来好运之事;幸运
5.be in somebody's good books:if you are in someone's good books, they are pleased with you

That looks like wishful thinking. Mr Trump’s mercantilism is long-held and could prove fierce, particularly if the strong dollar pushes America’s trade deficit higher. Congress would have only limited powers to restrain the president’s urge to impose tariffs. More important, even if rash protectionism is avoided, a strategy based on bribing and bullying individual companies will itself be a problem.
恐怕,那仅是一种一厢情愿。特朗普那种以商为本的特性由来已久,并有可能会变本加厉,特别是当强势美元推高了美国的贸易赤字。若特朗普一意孤行要加征关税,美国国会对其所具有的约束力是有限的。更重要的是,即使特朗普的保护主义政策没那么张狂,但总是对特定公司进行收买或威吓,这种政策本身也是有问题的。

1.wishful ['wɪʃfʊl] adj. 渴望的,愿望的;寄予希望的
2.rash [ræʃ] adj. 轻率的;鲁莽的;不顾后果的;n. [皮肤] 皮疹;突然大量出现的事物

Mr Trump is not the first American politician to cajole firms. For all its reputation as the bastion of rule-based capitalism, America has a long history of ad hoc political interventions in business. States routinely offer companies subsidies of the sort that Indiana gave to Carrier. From John Kennedy, who publicly shamed steel firms in the 1960s, to Barack Obama, who bailed out car companies in 2009, all presidents have meddled in markets.
不过,特朗普并不是第一位这样哄诱美国公司的美国政客。美国以基于规则的资本主义的堡垒誉满全球的同时,也有着对商界进行临时性政治干预的漫长历史。像印第安纳州给予Carrier公司补贴一样,美国各州给予公司各种补贴已司空见惯。从肯尼迪于1960年代公然压服美国钢铁公司,到奥巴马于2009年出巨资挽救汽车厂商,几乎所有美国总统都曾对市场进行过这样或那样的干预

1.bastion ['bæstɪən] n. 堡垒;棱堡
2.meddle['med(ə)l] vi. 管闲事,干预他人之事

And Mr Trump’s actions so far are not exceptional relative to his predecessors or by international standards. Britain’s prime minister recently made undisclosed promises to Nissan, a Japanese carmaker, to persuade the firm to stay in Britain despite Brexit. The French government is notorious for brow-beating individual firms to keep jobs in France. The most egregious crony corporatists, from Russia to Venezuela, dish out favours to acolytes and punishments to opponents on a scale that would bring blushes even in Trump Tower.
而且,若与其前任相比或以国际标准来衡量,特朗普的行为到目前为止还不算太出格英国首相最近对日本汽车厂商日产就做了秘密承诺,以劝阻该公司在英国脱欧后不要抛弃英国。法国政府为了把工作机会留在国内会对个别公司进行威逼,这也早已闻名于世。而在政商关系方面最为臭名昭著的,莫过于从俄罗斯到委内瑞拉等国会把乖巧听话的公司奉为上宾,让顽劣不长眼的公司吃不了兜着走,行径恶劣之程度,甚至连特朗普都会感到汗颜。

1.notorious [nə(ʊ)'tɔːrɪəs] adj. 声名狼藉的,臭名昭著的
2.browbeat ['braʊbiːt] vt. 恫吓,吓唬;欺侮
3.egregious [ɪ'griːdʒəs] adj. 惊人的;过分的;恶名昭彰的
4.crony ['krəʊnɪ] n. 密友;好朋友
5.acolyte['ækəlaɪt]  n. 侍僧;助手(指教士的),党羽
6.blush[blʌʃ] vi. 脸红;感到惭愧;n. 脸红;红色;羞愧;vt. 红著脸表示;使成红色

Courting the king and currying favour
跟着特朗普有肉吃
Nonetheless, Mr Trump’s approach is worrying. Unlike the Depression, when Hoover and then Roosevelt got companies to act in what they (often wrongly) saw as the national interest; or 2009, when Mr Obama corralled the banks and bailed out Detroit, America today is not in crisis. Mr Trump’s meddling is thus likely to be the new normal. Worse, his penchant for unpredictable and often vindictive bullying is likely to be more corrosive than the handouts most politicians favour.
但是,特朗普的套路依然是令人忧虑的。因为,今天的情况既不像大萧条时期,当时是胡佛然后是罗斯福命令各公司服务于他们眼中(通常误以为)的美国国家利益,也不像2009年全球金融危机时期,当时奥巴马出巨资拯救银行业、挽救汽车公司,因为,今天的美国,没有发生那样的危机。特朗普对市场的干预,也因此可能会成为一种“新常态”。更可怕的是,特朗普那种不具预测性且通常具有报复性的威逼手法,与多数美国总统所倾向的那种直接干预的办法相比,可能更具破坏性

1.court[kɔːt] n. 法院;球场;朝廷;奉承;vt. 招致(失败、危险等);向…献殷勤;设法获得;vi. 求爱
2.curry['kʌrɪ] vt. 用咖喱烧,给…加咖喱粉;梳刷;鞭打;n. 咖哩粉,咖喱;咖哩饭菜
3.corral[kə'rɑːl] n. 畜栏;环形车阵;vt. 把…关进畜栏;捕捉;把…布成车阵
4.penchant [ˈpɒŋʃɒŋ] n. 嗜好;倾向
5.vindictive [vɪn'dɪktɪv] adj. 怀恨的;有报仇心的;惩罚的
6.handout['hændaʊt] n. 散发材料(免费发给的新闻通报);上课老师发的印刷品;文字资料 (会议上分发的);施舍物

If this is the tone of the Trump presidency, prudent businesses will make it their priority to curry favour with the president and avoid actions that might irk him. Signs of this are already evident in the enthusiasm with which top CEOs—many of them critics of Mr Trump during the campaign—have rushed to join his new advisory board. Helping the Trump Organisation or the Trump family might not go amiss either. The role of lobbyists will grow—an irony given that Mr Trump promised to drain the Washington swamp of special interests.
若特朗普政府的政策取向是这样的话,那么,精明的公司将会把取悦特朗普、避免惹恼特朗普作为优先工作。而且,现实中已开始出现这样的苗头,很多公司的高层领导,总统竞选期间对特朗普持批评态度,现在却都已转换调门,哪怕把头挤扁了也要加入特朗普的咨询团队。为特朗普派系或特朗普家人提供某种类型的帮助,肯定也不会有什么坏的结果。因此,游说力量将会膨胀,这也刚好是对特朗普的一种反讽,因为,正是特朗普曾誓言,要把华盛顿的特殊利益集团清理得一干二净

1. prudent ['pruːd(ə)nt] adj. 谨慎的;精明的;节俭的
2.irk [ɜːk] vt. 使烦恼;使厌倦
3.amiss [ə'mɪs] adj. 有毛病的,有缺陷的;出差错的;adv. 错误地
4.swamp [swɒmp]  n. 沼泽;湿地;vt. 使陷于沼泽;使沉没;使陷入困境;vi. 下沉;陷入沼泽;陷入困境;不知所措

The costs from this shift may be imperceptible at first, exceeded by the boon from economic stimulus and regulatory reform. And as president of the world’s largest economy, Mr Trump will be able to ride roughshod over firms for longer with impunity than politicians in smaller places ever could. But over time the damage will accumulate: misallocated capital, lower competitiveness and reduced faith in America’s institutions. Those who will suffer most are the very workers Mr Trump is promising to help. That is why, if he really wants to make America great again, Mr Trump should lay off the protectionism and steer clear of the bullying right now.
政商关系这样微妙的转型所导致的弊端,刚开始或许不易被察觉,也会被经济刺激计划和规制改革所带来的利好所遮蔽。而且,作为掌管世界第一大经济体的总统,特朗普也拥有更强的能力在更长期间内对各公司颐指气使,另外还会免于被问责的风险,而其他国家的政客们对这种优越的权利只有羡慕嫉妒恨的份儿。但是,时间长了以后,那种破坏性就会积聚,资本会错配、竞争力会下降、对美国制度的信心也会被侵蚀。而其中受害最大的,刚好是特朗普承诺要帮助的工薪阶层。这也是为什么,若特朗普真的想让美国再次伟大,现在他就应立马摒弃保护主义、远离威逼利诱

1.imperceptible [ɪmpə'septɪb(ə)l] adj. 感觉不到的;极细微的
2.boon [buːn] n. 恩惠;福利;利益;adj. 愉快的;慷慨的
3.roughshod ['rʌfʃɒd] adj. 马蹄上装有防滑钉的;冷酷无情的
4.impunity [ɪm'pjuːnɪtɪ] n. 不受惩罚;无患;[法] 免罚
5.lay off解雇;休息;停止工作
6.steer clear of避开;绕开



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 楼主| 发表于 2016-12-15 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
政商关系,那里都一样龌龊,只是龌龊的程度不同罢了。。。
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