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China in clampdown on ‘hot’ money
中国严格限制“热钱”
China in clampdown on ‘hot’ moneyBy Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Published: July 2 2008 22:47 | Last updated: July 2 2008 22:47
China announced a major strengthening of capital controls on Wednesday in an attempt to limit the amount of speculative “hot money” entering the economy, which is frustrating its efforts to contain inflationary pressures.
In an announcement on its website, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), the country’s foreign exchange regulator, said that exporters would be required to park revenues in special accounts while the authorities verified the funds were the result of genuine trade.
The new system risks becoming a cumbersome burden for exporters, such as suppliers of cheap goods to western retailers.
Exporters will now be required to provide documentary evidence that their invoices are based on genuine transactions if they wish to change dollars into renminbi. The regulator said the new computer system for checking invoices would be introduced in August 4. A trial period begins on July 14.
Recent leaked figures showed record inflows of capital entering China over the past two months. Officials believe some money came in illegally after companies exaggerated export revenues.
China has become an attractive country for investors and companies because interest rates are now above US levels and the renminbi is expected to appreciate.
According to Reuters, China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by a record $114.8bn in April and May to $1,800bn. Although it is impossible to calculate how much of that inflow is short-term, speculative capital, the figures were substantially higher than the combined numbers for the trade surplus and foreign direct investment.
The capital inflows have made economic management more difficult because, even though domestic inflation has been high in recent months, the Chinese central bank has been reluctant to raise interest rates for fear of attracting more hot money.
Authorities have so far prevented the inflows from causing money supply to grow too sharply by issuing bonds and lifting bank reserve requirements.
However, the bond issues are expensive and some economists believe that the reserve requirements cannot go much higher before smaller banks start to suffer. The authorities are also worried about the impact on the financial system if many investors ever decided to withdraw large amount of funds from the country at the same time.
Although the Chinese authorities have long experience of managing capital controls, the risk is that the new system will be a burden that will damage business.
译文（个人原创）：
中国严格限制“热钱”
本周三中国宣布进一步加大资本控制，以限制进入中国市场的“热钱”（即国际游资）的数量。大量国际游资的涌入已经对抑制通货膨胀压力造成影响。
中国国家外汇管理局（Safe）在其官方网站已经宣布，外汇指定银行应当对企业出口收汇进行核查。
对于出口商，例如向西方零售商提供便宜货品的出口商来说，这个新的系统很有可能成为一个沉重的负担。
出口商如果希望将美元兑换成人民币，则必须提供书面证据以证明他们的发票以真实的交易为基础。该电子口岸试运行出口收结汇联网核查系统将于2008年8月4日起正式运行。7月14号开始为试用期。
最近透露的数字显示，在近两个月来，进入中国的资金达到历史新高。官员认为其中一些是在公司虚报出口外汇后通过非法途径进入的。
对于投资者和公司来说，中国已经成为一个极具吸引力的国家。一方面因为中国现在的利率高于美国；另一方面，人民币被认为还将继续升值。
根据路透社的报道，中国的外汇储备在四月份达到历史新高，为1148亿美元，而在五月份则更是达到了18000亿美元。虽然我们无法统计其中有多少为短期投机资本，这个数字依然要比贸易顺差和外商直接投资的总和高出许多。
资本的流入使得经济管理变得更加困难，因为虽然中国近几个月来通货膨胀比较严重，央行却由于害怕吸引更多热钱而迟迟不肯提高利率。
到目前为止，官方为了防止资本增长过快采用了发行证券和提高银行储备金要求等措施。
然而，发行证券是及其昂贵的。而且一些经济学家认为，储备金的要求不能过分提高否则一些小型银行会受损失。权威人士同时还担心，如果许多投资者同时决定撤出大量在中国的投资，那么对于金融系统将产生很大冲击。
虽然中国政府在资本控制方面很有经验，但是潜在的危险依然存在——这个新的系统还是有可能成为制约商业行为的负担。
哇咔咔！！第一次发帖！！鼓励自己！！！
[ 本帖最后由 空气稀薄 于 2008-7-4 06:04 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2008-7-3 19:12
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