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【福布斯】改革30年之后的中国（第一部分）
【原文标题】China After 30 Years of Reform（Four-Part Series）
【原文】
China After 30 Years of Reform, I
Gordon G. Chang, 12.16.08, 05:30 PM EST
Do Hu and Wen have Deng Xiaoping's wisdom?
First Of A Four-Part Series
Every society changes, but China's changes faster. The startling transformation that began 30 years ago this month with the accession of Deng Xiaoping has been one of the world's great stories.
Deng's great legacy was undoing Mao Zedong's. Mao captured China and then proceeded to regiment, repress and ultimately deny it of vitality. When he died in September 1976, Chinese leaders knew there would have to be reform. The debate in
Beijing was how much should be allowed and how fast it should occur.
The now-accepted narrative is that Deng argued for a startling transformation of Chinese society. We buy the story that he first debated with his fellow revolutionaries, then experimented and finally decreed change.
Yet, in reality, reform progressed more by disobedience than design. Initial failure to meet state-planning goals forced Deng to back away from command-economy tactics and permit individual initiative. Peasants on large collective farms, for example, were permitted to form "work groups" to tend designated plots. Central government policies specifically prohibited these groupings from including just one family. But families started to look after their own plots--and local officials pretended not to notice. Urban subterfuge followed rural subterfuge. Deng's Beijing strictly prohibited private industry, but entrepreneurs proceeded by operating their businesses as "red hat" collectives and enterprises--private companies operating under the flag of state ownership. Deng's reforms succeeded because the Chinese people disobeyed Deng's rules.
Such defiance would have been unthinkable in the Maoist years. Deng's great contribution, therefore, is not so much that he planned China's "economic miracle" but that he let it happen. The economy during the last three decades has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8% largely because peasants, workers and frustrated bureaucrats made themselves into entrepreneurs and pushed their country forward. By ignoring central government decrees, they built private businesses now accounting for as much as half of the Chinese economy.
For many years, China has marched to the banner of gaige kaifang, "reform and opening to the outside world." Progress, of course, has not occurred in a straight line. In the last three decades, there have been periods of fast change followed by retreat. The years of consolidation have, in turn, been followed by more structural change.
Today, China is once again turning inward. Since 2006 the central government has been blocking foreign takeovers and, for the most part, frustrating important reforms. Beijing tinkers these days, but the initiative of the early years, which resulted in positive change, has been largely lost.
That's a problem because China needs to continue transforming itself. The Communist Party has created growth by grafting free-market mechanisms onto its Marxist structure. It has tried to reform its system, but what has really happened is that the new has grown alongside the old.
The state still retains ownership or control over important enterprises and still makes economic decisions best left to the market. Bill Gates may say that China has "capitalism at full speed," but that's not correct. The country's technocrats, unfortunately, are still holed up in offices in Beijing preparing detailed five-year plans and directing the workings of the economy, allocating resources, pricing goods and awarding contracts. "Socialism with Chinese characteristics"--Deng's famous phrase--may mean many things, but it is, above all, socialism.
Although analysts think China's leaders can mix two inherently different economic systems, their arguments, however persuasive, are implicitly premised on Chinese leaders continuing their decades-long program of reform.
The growth we see today is largely the payoff from earlier reforms. Growth tomorrow requires reform today. China's current political system, however, cannot sustain the pace of necessary economic restructuring.
The Party apparently thinks--probably correctly--that further economic reform would threaten the country's authoritarian system, so the Party will not sponsor much more change.
So it should come as no surprise that this slow-or-no-reform period coincides with a time of political retrenchment. The conservative government of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao has enjoyed a period of especially fast economic expansion--2007 was the fifth year of double-digit growth--and continual economic success has naturally blunted arguments about the need for further restructuring.
Yet the Chinese economy has begun to sputter this year, in part because of its internal imbalances and in part due to the global economic crisis. Soon, Hu and Wen will be confronted with the reality that China needs a sustainable economic model, just as Deng and his colleagues 30 years ago faced the inescapable evidence of the failure of Maoist economics.
Strong-willed Deng ultimately succeeded in presiding over the transformation of the Chinese economy.
The issue is, in a very different time with very different challenges, whether Hu and Wen also possess Deng's wisdom to let the Chinese people push their country forward.
China at this time needs a Deng Xiaoping, but, more important, the Communist Party needs to let the Chinese people transform their economy and their society.
改革30年之后的中国（第一部分）
Gordon G. Chang美国东部时间下午5：30
胡和温有邓小平英明吗？
每个社会都在改变，但是中国变得更快。伴随着邓小平在30年前的这个月的就职而开始的惊人变革是世界上最伟大的史诗之一。
邓小平留给我们伟大的遗产是消除了毛泽东时期的混乱。毛占领了中国，然后严密地管制着中国。当他在1976年逝世时，中国的领导人知道他们必须改革。在北京的争论只是，改革的程度和时间。
现在公认的记录是，邓小平主张一个惊人的关于中国社会的改革。我们获得的消息是，他先是和他的战友讨论，然后开始试验，最后再开始推广。
然而，事实上，改革的进展更多的是服从于计划。初期不符合国家计划的目标使得邓小平必须从计划经济方式退出，并且尊重个人的主动性。比如，集体农场的农民被允许组成“生产队”来照看小块的地。中央政府的方针中强调禁止这些生产组以家庭为单位生产，但是，每家已经开始照看自己家的地——地方政府假装没有注意到。
城镇的人们也开始学习乡村的做法。北京严格禁止私营经济，但是企业家开始以集体或者事业单位——国有旗帜下的私营公司的名义开始他们的事业。邓的改革成功了，因为人们没有遵照邓的规定。
这种违背在毛泽东时代是不可想象的。邓的伟大贡献就是，不是他设计了中国的“经济奇迹”，而是他让这个奇迹发生了。由于农民、工人和沮丧的官僚投入到实业中来，推动这个国家向前进，中国的经济才在过去的30年里以年均9.8%的速度增长着。不顾政府的命令，他们建立的私营经济规模已经占中国经济的半壁江山。
多年来，中国一直高举改革开放伟大旗帜，改革并且向外面的世界开放。进步，当然不会是一帆风顺。在过去的30年里，有很多时候是退缩之后的伟大变革。更多结构性的变化之后又是多年的巩固。
今天，中国再一次转向内部，自2006年以来，中央政府开始阻挡外国的收购，并且在大多数情况下，进行让人沮丧的改革。北京现在在修改，但是早年引起角色转变的主动性，已经消失殆尽。
这是一个问题，因为中国还需要继续改变自己。共产党独创性地把自由市场引进到马克思主义理论中。它试图改变它的体系，但是真正在发生的事情是新的体系和旧的一起生长。
这个国家仍然拥有或控制着重要的企事业单位，并且把经济决策留给市场。比尔·盖茨说，中国在“全速资本主义化”，但是，那是不正确的。不幸的是，这个国家的技术专家仍躲在北京的办公室里，准备详细的五年计划，指导经济工作，分配资源，给商品定价，授予合同。邓小平有句话，“具有中国特色的社会主义”，可能意味着许多事情，但是上面的所有事，是社会主义。
尽管分析人士认为，中国的领导人可以把这种截然不同的经济模式混在一起，他们的论证是有说服力的，隐含的前提是，中国的领导人继续持续了几十年的经济改革。
今天我们看到的增长是早期改革的果实。明天的增长需要今天的变革。然而，中国现在的政治体制，不能维持经济重组的步伐。
很明显，这个政党在思考——也许是正确的——更深次的经济改革可能会危及这个国家的专制制度，所以，共产党不会发起更多的改变。
所以，一点也不奇怪，一个缓慢或者没有改革的时期会在一个政治紧缩的时期出现。保守的胡锦涛和温家宝的政府已经享受到了经济的快速增长——2007年是第五年经济以两位数的增速上升——经济的进一步增长必然需要进一步的改革。
今年中国经济已经开始下滑，一部分是因为她内部的不均衡，另一半是因为全球经济危机。不久之后，胡和温就必须面对这样一个事实：中国需要一个可持续的经济增长模式，就像邓和他的同事在30年面对毛泽东经济模式不可避免的失败时一样。强力的邓最终成功地促成了中国经济的改革。
这个问题是，在一个不同时期面对不同的挑战，胡和温也必须具有邓小平的智慧，来使中国继续前进。
中国现在需要一个邓小平，但是，更重要的是，共产党需要让中国人民改变他们的经济和社会。
更多阅读：
【美国福布斯】《中国即将崩溃》一书作者看改革30年之后的中国 (2)
http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-127118-1-1.html
【美国福布斯】《中国即将崩溃》一书作者看改革30年之后的中国 (3)
http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-127130-1-1.html
【美国福布斯】《中国即将崩溃》一书作者看改革30年之后的中国 (4)
http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-127366-1-1.html
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