【theage】Defence plan ruffles the Chinese

nbnbren

Defence plan ruffles the Chinese   

John Garnaut and Brendan Nicholson
May 1, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/national/defence-plan-ruffles-the-chinese-20090430-aoy2.html

    THE Chinese Government is bristling at reports that tomorrow's Australian Defence white paper will call for a big build-up of naval and air force power to counter the potential military threat of China.

    Senior Chinese diplomats and scholars say they are confused at Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's apparent hawkish stance and predict Beijing will formally raise concerns.

     "For us this is confusing," a Chinese diplomatic source told The Age. "Kevin Rudd was supposed to be the Chinese-speaking Prime Minister who would provide a bridge between China and America. "But now it looks like he wants to be act on behalf of America against China. This is going to be hard to explain to the Chinese people."

     He emphasised, however, that the relationship was probably strong enough to withstand tension over defence policy. "The momentum in the relationship is unstoppable."

    Chinese concerns may have been heightened by a briefing given in Beijing by the white paper's authors on deadly new capabilities for Australian forces that will include an estimated 12 new long-range submarines equipped with cruise missiles.

    "China definitely will not accept Australia adopting the so-called China threat thesis," said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at the People's University. He said Beijing would raise "serious questions" with Australia.

    But Professor Shi and other Chinese analysts have also questioned whether Mr Rudd is just posturing in the face of public criticism and controversy over the proposed $US19.5 billion investment in Rio Tinto by the state-owned Chinalco.

    Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull today will put more heat on Mr Rudd over China and Chinalco, calling on the Government to reject the investment proposal as it now stands.

    Mr Turnbull will also warn against the Prime Minister trying to be an "intermediary" between the US and China, saying he risks being perceived by the Americans as overly sympathetic to China and by the Chinese as "a bearer of other people's messages".

    And, on the eve of the release of the Defence white paper, Mr Turnbull will warn against exaggerated fears about China's rise as a world power. "It makes no sense for Australia in 2009 to base its long-term strategic policy on the highly-contentious proposition that we are on an inevitable collision course with China," he will say.

    It is believed that Mr Rudd has sided with Australia's defence establishment, against advice from leading intelligence agencies, to view China as a potential threat that must be prepared for.
    Some of the Government's senior analysts believe China's military build-up is inevitable, that there is little Australian submarines or fighter planes can do to stop it and that it might only become threatening if Western governments try too overtly to contain it.

    China is in the process of transforming its huge but technologically backward forces into a modern military, as it increases formal military spending by about 18 per cent a year.
    But most analysts say China is decades away from having anything like a credible balance to American military power.

    "The Chinese army can now blind the US army by shooting down a US satellite," said Niklas Swanstrom, director of Sweden's Institute for Security & Development Policy. "But the question is, what do they do next? I think we over-estimate China's military strength."

    The Australian white paper will include a plan for at least 12 submarines to be built for the navy at a likely cost of about $3 billion each to replace the six Collins class subs. The new submarines are expected to be the world's biggest conventional boats, able to carry 20 or more cruise missiles, which they could launch, submerged, against the cities of any nation attacking Australia.

    The new subs will be much bigger than the Collins class, and will be fitted with compartments and hatches necessary to dispatch special forces on to hostile shores and to launch unmanned mini-subs and unmanned spy planes.

    The missiles will make them a serious deterrent even to a major nation threatening Australia. They will also be a potent defence against attacking subs.

    Defence planners have noted that China is building a big force of conventional and nuclear submarines and many other nations in the region are buying "off the shelf" models from Russia and elsewhere.

    The influential Australian Submarine Institute describes the submarine as "Australia's strategic sting" and has argued that because of our particular requirements — very long range in particular — no "off the shelf"' boat will do the job.

    The Government is understood to have accepted that the submarines should be built in Australia and it is likely to use the technology developed for the Collins class, now widely considered to be best conventional submarine in the world.

    The new submarines will work closely with increasingly large forces of US nuclear subs as Washington increases its numbers in the Pacific to counter the Chinese build-up.

    Meanwhile, Mr Turnbull today will say that the controversial bid by the Chinese state-owned Chinalco for a bigger stake in Rio Tinto should be rejected as it currently stands.

    The Chinalco bid is very difficult for the Government and Mr Turnbull's stance will put further pressure on it.

    Mr Turnbull will put forward three reasons for rejection.

    First, Chinalco is a state-owned enterprise under effective control of China's Communist Party. Second, there is a conflict of interest when a major purchaser of a commodity has a big shareholding in a leading producer of the commodity. And third, no Australian or foreign company would be allowed to buy a stake in a major Chinese resource company.

j小蜜蜂

【全文截图】