【澳大利亚人】China finds Rudd 'more difficult' than Howard

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China finds Rudd 'more difficult' than Howard
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25498143-2702,00.html

Rowan Callick, Asia-Pacific Editor May 18, 2009               

INTERNATIONALanalysts in China are starting to claim that Beijing is finding itdifficult to deal with Kevin Rudd, and the Chinese leadership was morecomfortable with John Howard than the current Prime Minister.

Theclaim, from one of China's most influential security experts, comes asthe federal Opposition starts to break away from the bipartisanship onChina, with Malcolm Turnbull taking a different approach on investmentand on security.  

Controversies have swirled around the Australia-China relationshipthis year, including the $26billion Chinalco bid for 18 per cent of RioTinto, the defence white paper's focus on China's military rise, theunheralded visit of propaganda chief Li Changchun andChinese-Australian businesswoman Helen Liu's sponsorship of DefenceMinister Joel Fitzgibbon. Zhu Feng, deputy director of the School ofInternational Studies at Beijing University and a frequent consultantto the Chinese Government and corporate sector, said: "When Mr Rudd waselected, there was an expectation that a more intimate relationshipbetween the countries would result, because he knows China so well andspeaks Chinese.

"But it has remained just at the commercial level. Bilateralrelations as a whole are still far from intimate; they are undeveloped.We haven't even agreed a strategic partnership, in the way we have with24 other countries."

Professor Zhu said the Howard government had got China excitedbriefly, when foreign minister Alexander Downer indicated Canberrawould not necessarily join the US in coming to Taiwan's support ifattacked. But the relationship then settled down a comfortable buteconomically driven track, he said.

He described China as "a lonely power", which was "looking for some form of international intimacy".

"We truly want Australia, which we view as a middle power, to play a bigger role internationally," he said.

"I think Mr Rudd's proposal for an Asia-Pacific community isbrilliant, and has earned solid support from China. But there has beenno follow-up. Nothing substantial is happening to take it further."

He said that "perhaps we should focus on Mr Rudd as a politician".

"He offers words that can be very touching, but may not be taken too seriously," he said.

"We hope that the Kevin Rudd administration can move in a balancedway between Tokyo and Beijing, but strategic co-operation betweenCanberra and Tokyo seems to be getting deeper."

He said that Mr Rudd "came up with a lot of thoughts".

"But how to put them into effect? Maybe he's just too much entangled in domestic politics," he said.

Beijing is watching with some concern the differences developingbetween the Government and the Opposition over China, after a lengthyperiod of virtual consensus.

The Opposition Leader in a speech to the Lowy Institute earlier thismonth criticised the Prime Minister's push for China to have a greatersay in the International Monetary Fund.

"Those who seek to earn brownie points by flattering or favouring agreat power are at risk of being seen as doing no more than what isexpected, at worst as showing weakness," Mr Turnbull said. "I wasdisappointed, therefore, by the manner of Mr Rudd's recent very publicadvocacy of China having a larger shareholding in the IMF.

"On his most recent trip to New York, he became so seized by theimperative of greater global engagement with China that he forgot hehad a great story to tell American audiences about the strength,stability and security of our own economy and financial system."

The Liberal leader added: "It makes no sense for Australia in 2009to base its long-term strategic policy on the highly contentiousproposition that Australia is on an inevitable collision course with amilitarily aggressive China.

"The Prime Minister would have been wiser, and stayed closer to thefacts, if he had avoided rhetoric about an Asian 'arms race'."Professor Zhu is concerned that the controversy over Chinalco's move onRio Tinto risks undermining the relationship. He warned of the dangerof a backlash in China if the deal were rejected.

Australia's defence white paper, released this month, warned thatChina's military modernisation might "give its neighbours cause forconcern if not carefully explained".

However, the white paper had not yet been the subject of substantial discussion in China, Professor Zhu said.

"At heart, however, Beijing will not feel very comfortable with the paper's positions," he said.

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