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本帖最后由 j小蜜蜂 于 2009-7-6 12:41 编辑
【中文标题】我们对中国的激情在逐渐冷却，却远不会结束
【原文标题】Our love affair with China is cooling but far from over
【登载媒体】SMH 悉尼晨锋报
【来源地址】http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/our-love-affair-with-china-is-cooling-but-far-from-over/2009/02/09/1234027953289.html
【译 者】Athan Zhang
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。"
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-161395-1-1.html
【译 文】
I reached a point a few years ago where I stopped reading anything on China that included this quote from Napoleon: "China is a sleeping dragon. Let him sleep. If he wakes, he will shake the world."
几年前我开始停止阅读关于中国的一切消息，包括下面这句引用拿破仑的话，“中国是一只沉睡中的龙。让他继续睡下去。如果他醒来，他将撼动世界。”
In the great gush of China boosterism of the past decade, this became one of the ritual incantations.
在过去十年里，中国经济如泉涌般向前推进，而拿破仑的这句话也逐渐变成了人们常常说的一句口头禅。
It was always followed by the claim that China had awoken and was about to shake the world. Often, analysts would simply stick this quote together with the country's economic growth rate and, hey presto!, you had an irrefutable case for China's uninterrupted rise to global dominance.
往后总有人宣称中国已经觉醒，并且将要撼动全世界。看到中国的经济发展速度，常常会让分析师们欣然地联想到了拿破仑的那句话，这样，突然你变有了中国将持续不断发展成为世界强国的一个不可辩驳的证据。
Almost unanimously, economists predicted an endless vista of high growth for China. The consensus a year ago was that a downturn for China would be for annual growth to slow from its breakneck of 13 per cent in 2007 by perhaps 1 to 2 percentage points.
经济学家们的意见几乎完全一致，都为中国的高速增长速度展望了一个无线的前景。一年前，大家都认为中国的经济会有所衰退，年增长速率将从2007年的惊人的13%，下降一到两个百分点。
Well, China did awake when Deng Xiaoping began modernising in 1978. And it was shaking the world as it became the world's third-biggest economy.
当然，从邓小平开始改革开放其，中国的确觉醒了。并且一跃成为世界第三大经济强国的它也在撼动整个世界。
But now the world has shaken China. It is so badly shaken that it is facing its biggest crunch since the protesters in Tiananmen Square demanded political reform in 1989.
但现在世界却让中国吃惊。自从1989年抗议者在天安门广场抗议要求政治改革以来，中国正为它所面临的最大的危机所吃惊。
The boosters claimed the global made-in-America recession would not seriously slow China because it was too robust and its growth self-sustaining. One of the fashionable new topics at economic conferences around the world in the past year or so was so-called "decoupling", the idea that the rest of the world might stall but China would zoom gleefully ahead.
支持者宣称这场始于美国的全球经济大萧条不会很严重地减缓中国的发展速度，因为它的经济相当稳固，并且可以依靠国内维持自我发展。过去一年里，在世界经济会议上很流行的一个话题叫做所谓的“脱钩”，它认为世界其它国家发展将停滞而中国的发展将快乐地急速向前。
That argument is now looking pretty sad. This year Beijing predicts economic growth of 8 per cent. More plausibly, the International Monetary Fund forecasts 6.7 per cent. In other words, its growth has halved.
那个争论现在看起来似乎很可悲。今年北京政府预计经济增长为8%。看起来更令人可信的数据是，世界货币基金组织预计的6.7%。换句话说，中国的经济增长减半了。
This still seems rapid, though. So what is the problem? It is that China needs growth of about 9 per cent a year just to absorb the 24 million new would-be workers who spill into its labour market every year. So this year there will be no new jobs. And Beijing estimates that of the 130 million poor rural workers who had moved to the cities to find work, 20 million have been been thrown out of jobs in the past few months.
这个增长速率看起来仍然很快。那么问题出在哪呢？只是中国需要年9%的增长速率去吸纳每天涌入劳动市场的2400万新增的想要找工作的劳动者。所以今年将没有新的工作岗位。而且北京政府估计已经到城市去找工作的1亿3千万农民工们，在过去的几个月里，他们中已有两千万人丢掉了饭碗。
What the world needed was sane analysis of China, not unthinking cheerleading.
世界需要的是对中国这种情况作出明智的分析，而不是轻率的欢呼喝彩。
Australia, more than most countries, fell heavily under China's spell. After all, China was paying for the mining boom we enjoyed for the past five years. Rio Tinto was the biggest of many companies that bet its future on China, and now is again as it seeks to raise $5 billion from the Chinese state.
澳大利亚，相比大多数国家而言，更深陷于中国的魔力之中。毕竟，中国为我们过去五年里的矿业迅速发展买了账。Rio Tinto是很多把未来压在中国的公司中最大的一个，现在，它又在努力从中国政府拿去筹集50亿美元。
The Beijing Olympics, with its stunning opening and modern architecture, seemed to cap the fairytale. But perhaps Australia's imagined Chinese destiny was made flesh in the person of its new Prime Minister. Kevin Rudd's approval rating, already high, surged anew after he, as Opposition leader, addressed China's visiting President in Mandarin during the APEC gathering in Sydney in September 2007.
北京奥林匹克运动会以它让人耳目一新的开幕式和现代化的设施，似乎让中国神话达到了一个顶峰。但澳大利亚可能对中国现任总理认为中国的未来的命运会鲜活起来抱有一丝幻想。2007年9月在悉尼举办的亚太经济合作组织会议上，在温家宝总理谈到了中国对澳大利亚进行国事访问的国家主席胡惊涛后，反对党领导人Kevin Rudd本来已经对中国未来命运去温总理所说的形式大好持很高的赞同态度，其好感又提升了一个档次。 翻译见 #7
But the mining boom has turned bust. Commodity prices have collapsed. The mining sector is cancelling projects and sacking workers. "Decoupling" is dead. The Olympics are over.
但矿业的迅速发展已经结束了。商品价格直线下滑。矿产公司都在取消接下的工程项目，并且裁员。“脱钩”已经不复存在。奥林匹克结束了。
A lot of analysts have had their passports subject to a reality check," observes Mike Komesaroff, an expert on the resources trade.
“很多分析师曾保证无问题的项目现在都还有待考证。”一位资源交易专家Mike Komesaroff评论说。
A China watcher at the Centre for Independent Studies, John Lee, remarks that "I think we have passed the high-water mark in Australia's relationship with China, and you are starting to see more criticism of Chinese politics and society than you were a year ago".
John Lee，一位独立研究中心的观察员评论说：“我认为我们已经超越了澳大利亚与中国建立贸易关系的顶峰，接下来你会比一年前听到更多批评中国政治和社会的评论。”
It could get worse. The Chinese leadership has said it is concerned about social stability in the economic downturn.
情况可能会更糟。中国领导人曾说过会在经济衰退时期很关注社会稳定性问题，但事实却很令人担忧。
Even before the economy slowed, the number of protests and riots in China was at a high level. A decade ago, the official number of so-called "mass incidents" was 10,000 a year. Last year, Beijing admitted to 60,000.
在经济发展放慢之前，中国的抗议和暴乱事件的次数就在一个很高的层次上。十年前，官方宣布的所谓“聚众事件”一年有10000起。去年，北京政府承认达到了每年60000起。
So our national love affair with China is cooling. Disenchantment might yet set in in the year ahead.
所以我们对中国的激情在降温。对它抱有的幻想或许会在未来一年破灭。
What is the longer-term outlook? One of the small number of economists to predict its present doldrums, Jim Walker of Asianomics, writes that his "concerns are centred on the current cycle and not on the long-term prospects for China becoming a market economy. The trend towards private property is in place, the trend towards market opening is continuing and the trend towards a more rational policy framework is ongoing."
那么一个更长期的前景会是什么样的呢？少数经济学家中的一名来自Asianomics的Jim Walker预测了中国现在的经济萧条期，他写道：“他所关心的主要集中在现阶段，而不是中国发展成为市场经济的一个长远的前景。财产私有化的趋势在发生，市场对外开放的趋势在继续，并且形成一个更完善的政治框架的趋势也在进行中。”
Ross Garnaut, a former Australian ambassador to Beijing and author of the 1989 report that urged Australia to plunge into north-east Asia, concurs: "There's no doubt we are part way through a bigger trend of Chinese growth. The biggest part of it is ahead of us."
前澳大利亚驻北京大使馆大使，同时也是1989年督促澳大利亚将精力投入到亚洲东北部的报告的作者，Ross Garnaut，同样说道：“我们才走在中国经济发展更迅速的半路上。最好的阶段还在我们前面。”
After this downturn, China will return to strong growth, though probably nothing like 13 per cent. "China is on a path to being a bigger, richer economy," Garnaut says. "The future of a lot of Australian companies depends on Chinese investment. Integration through investment is well on its way."
在这次经济衰退后，中国将恢复到稳定的发展，尽管可能不会再有13%的发展速率出现了。“中国在一条通往更强大，更富裕的经济大国的路上。”Garnaut 说。“很多澳大利亚公司的未来都寄托在中国的投资上。产业的集中投资也在有条不紊的进行。”
China was the world's biggest economy until as recently as 1830; at the time of Napoleon's observation, it was fading to its weakest in centuries.
直到接近1830年，中国仍是全球经济霸主；拿破仑那时评论，中国经济将在几个世纪里衰退到它的最低谷。
With tools of modernization at its disposal, and unless the country fractures under the strain of recession, its recovery to historical greatness is likely to resume.
运用现代科学工具，除非整个国家经济被经济衰退弄得支离破碎，中国恢复到历史上的强大国家很有可能再次发生。
Australia has resources that China needs. And China has capital that we need. This complementarity will reassert itself and continue to drive the two countries closer together. We just don't need to gush over it.
澳大利亚有中国需要的资源。同时中国有澳大利亚需要的资金。这种互补的关系会重新显现，同时让两国的关系更近一步。我们不需要对此滔滔不绝的说下去了。
Peter Hartcher is the Herald's Political Editor.
Peter Hartcher是先锋报的政治编辑。
翻译见 #7
嗯，楼主翻译的非常好。
只是这一段，偶感觉似乎有点不太通顺？
小妹只是个高中生，瞎翻译一下！
Kevin Rudd's approval rating, already high, surged anew after he, as Opposition leader, addressed China's visiting President in Mandarin during the APEC gathering in Sydney in September 2007.
最为反对党领袖的陆克文的支持率本来已经很高，但是由于2007年9月在悉尼举办的亚太经济合作组织会议上，陆克文成功和来访的中国国家主席胡锦涛对话，使其支持率又创新高！（小妹记得，当时有个典故，胡主席讲话时，陆克文是唯一一个没用翻译机的领导人，并与胡主席用汉语对话，使当时的霍华德很是尴尬）
若小妹翻译错或记错，还请勿笑！olgacheung 发表于 2009-7-6 10:55  |
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