【ABC】RBA expecting 'subdued growth' on China's back

nbnbren

RBA expecting 'subdued growth' on China's back
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/21/2631915.htm?section=justin

By Online business reporter Michael Janda

Posted 6 hours 20 minutes ago
Updated 3 hours 4 minutes ago


Economic driver: A labourer at a Chinese steel and iron factory (Reuters)

The latest Reserve Bank minutes provide an optimisticassessment of Australia's economic outlook, largely thanks to Chinesegrowth.

The RBA says China's growth, combined with internationalstabilisation and stronger than expected Australian retail sales, islikely to drag the economy back to slow growth later this year and next.

"Members' assessment remained that the most likely outcome for theworld economy over the next year or two would be subdued growth," theboard noted.

The board members made many references to the impact of China's economic strength on Australia.

"While the depreciation of the Australian dollar had been helpful toexporters, the strong performance of the Chinese economy wasparticularly important," the minutes read.

Aside from the direct exports to China, the RBA also emphasised China's role in an Asia-Pacific regional recovery.

"Output in the developing countries of east Asia was likely to haverecorded a substantial increase, underpinned by a pick-up in growth inChina," board members said.

Importantly, the board noted during the meeting that, "downsiderisks had diminished", meaning that the chances of further interestrate cuts appear more remote.

'Effective' stimulusThe RBA handed itself and the Federal Government much of the credit for the Australian economy's surprising resilience.

"Members observed that the early and substantial easing of bothmonetary policy and fiscal policy had been effective in supportingdemand, which, if anything, had been more resilient than expected," theminutes stated.

The bank paid particular attention to the stimulus effect on housingactivity and house prices, as well as surprising growth in retail salesduring the heart of the crisis.

"Retail sales had increased strongly in May and were 7 per centhigher than in September, a considerably stronger outcome than incomparable countries," the board noted.

The Reserve Bank dropped another hint that rates are likely to stayon hold when it noted that, "the full effects of policy measures wouldstill be coming through for some time."

The Reserve did however note that the current inflation outlook"afforded scope" to cut rates further if things take a surprising turnfor the worse.

The latest official inflation figures for the June quarter will be released tomorrow.

nbnbren

1# nbnbren

nbnbren

renling认领

nbnbren

http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=v ... p;extra=#pid2550871

好了