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【中文标题】中国军队是纸老虎
【原文标题】China's military bluster camouflages toothless bite
【登载媒体】路透社
【来源地址】http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6280JW20100309
【译者】fukgm
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=229147&rpid=3368713&ordertype=0&page=1#pid3368713
【译文】
Ben Blanchard - Analysis BEIJING Mon Mar 8, 2010 11:06pm EST
笨.补烂差德 分析 北京 周一 三月二日 2010年晚上11:06
(Reuters) - Big on spit and polish and parades but short on experience, new technology and force coordination, China's military has far to go before its bite begins to approach its increasingly loud, and for some fearsome, bark.
（路透社）-衣着光鲜，步伐整齐，阅兵表演战无不胜但同时缺乏实战经验及各军种协调，武备方面没有技术含量的中国军队，在万事俱备之前的蛰伏期间，尽管牙还没长全，其野心却已经从其日趋喧嚣的可怖的狂吠声中流露出来了，
China has invested billions of dollars in its armed forces and is developing advanced fighters and missiles, considering building its first aircraft carrier and is trying to slim its bloated ranks down to a lean, high-tech military.
中国将数十亿经费拨入军队建设项目方面用来竭力开发先进战机和导弹技术，当然建造第一艘航空母舰的计划也在考虑之中，还有就是将臃肿的军队缩编成高技术精锐的精简措施。
2010 Defense budget unveiled last week was 7.5 percent higher than last year, a modest rise by China's recent standards, but impressive compared to other big powers."
中国上星期公布的其2010年的国防预算比上一年整整高了7.5个百分点，当然比起中国这些年的军事预算增长这点不算什么，但还是远远超过其他大国军事预算的增长率。
Those rises have raised alarm in Taiwan, the self-ruled island China claims as its own, the rest of the region, and especially in the United States, the world's only superpower with a military reach that far exceeds China's.
因此，这种增长率迫使台湾——这个中国号称拥有主权，如今仍然在自治的小岛提高了他的戒备，当然还引起了世界其他地区的注意，特别是美国，世界上唯一具备且大大超过中国军队战力的超级大国。
In a report to Congress published last month, the Pentagon said it was concerned by China's missile buildup and increasingly advanced capabilities in the Pacific region.
在上个月呈交给国会的一份报告中，五角大楼声称对中国在太平洋地区日益增长的导弹部署数量及远程打击能力感到担忧。
Yet while China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) looks increasingly fierce on paper, analysts -- and even Chinese army officers -- say it will be a long time before the country has the means to effectively challenge U.S. power, if ever.
这种纸上谈兵的数据描述了中国人民解放军实力增长是多么迅猛，然而分析家，甚至于中国军队的军官都坦承，如果要想取得成功挑战美国权威的资格，中国军队还有很长的一段路要走。
"What is their readiness level? How effective are these things they've developed themselves?" said Drew Thompson, of the Nixon Center, a think tank in Washington.
“什么时候他们才算‘准备好’？他们这种自己闭门造车的手段能多有效？”，在尼克松中心工作的华府智囊DREW THOMPSON质疑道，
"Is their indigenous technology really working, or does it simply exist like a lot of things in the Chinese system, on paper? I would posit it probably leans more toward the latter."
“他们那种老土技术能起作用么？或者是像中国其他部门的技术应用情况一样只留在纸上，纯属YY？我个人估计后面那种推测更实际些吧。”
After a spike in tension that has stoked nationalist Chinese calls for a hard shove back against U.S. influence, some PLA officers are also trying to discourage chest-thumping.
中美之间的矛盾尖锐化后，中国的国家主义者要求政府削弱美国的影响力，但有些解放军的军官认为中国不应该过于骄傲”。（由shimo1989指正）
"There's no way China can threaten the United States," Lt. Gen. Li Dianren, a professor at the National Defense University, told Reuters on the sidelines of the annual session of parliament.
“中国不可能威胁到美国，”国防大学教授李殿仁中将在一年一度的人大代表会议期间对路透社记者这么表态。
"Anyone with even a bit of common sense knows that our capabilities do not come even close to matching those of the U.S. In terms of economics, technology and the military, the gap is huge. How can we threaten them?" he added.
他继续说，“稍有常识的人都知道，我们国家的实力无论从经济，科技还是军事跟美国相比，差距相当大。我们怎么能威胁到他们？”
A BIG PARADE
“大阅兵”
To be sure, China's military is becoming increasingly assertive, as seen by occasional tiffs at sea and in the air, notably in 2001 when a U.S. spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan island after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet.
有一点是可以确定的，那就是中国的军力是在变强，可以从近几次在海上与空中的冲突看出来，特别是在2001年的那次事故：美国的侦察机紧急降落在了海南岛——当然是在把中国的战斗机撞下海之后。
Last March, the Pentagon said five Chinese ships harassed the U.S. Navy Ship the Impeccable, an unarmed ocean surveillance vessel, in international waters off Hainan. China says the U.S. ship was carrying out an illegal survey.
还有就是去年的三月份，五角大楼报告中国海军在海南附近的国际海域上不停骚扰美国的无暇号——一艘无武装的海洋监测船。中国随后指责美船正在做所谓的“非法测绘”。
PLA showmanship is also grand.
除了军事实力，人民解放军也相当会作秀。
A military parade last October 1 marking 60 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China featured an array of new weapons, all domestically developed.
在去年纪念中华人民共和国建国六十周年的阅兵典礼上，展出了一大批新式武器，全部是自己山寨的。
"China and the United States are rivals. That's a fact," said Liu Mingfu, author of a book calling for China to develop a military so powerful Washington will not dare challenge it.
中国和美国是竞争对手，事实就是这样。”刘明福大校这么说。他本人就是一本鼓吹中国扩充军力以达到威慑美国为目的的书刊作者。
"In the past, U.S. presidents didn't call China a rival, and Chinese presidents never have. But that's strategic hypocrisy, because each side knows the other is a rival," he said.
刘明福接着说：“以前，美国总统从来不称中国为对手，中国领导人亦是如此。但是那只是种战略伪装，因为双方都明白一山不容二虎的道理，”
Many practical hurdles could hamper Liu's goal.
但挡在刘的痴想面前的却是成堆实打实的问题和障碍。
China is hardly renowned for producing high quality goods, as a series of product safety scandals in recent years has shown.
从近几年爆出的产品安全丑闻看来，中国在制造高质量产品这方面一直是他们的软肋，
"If you go to the PLA and they show you some fantastic new missile on display at an air show, yes they have a missile system, but does it work? Does it work repeatedly and does it work in combat conditions?" Thompson said.
DREW THOMPSON（见上文）：“如果你受邀请去解放军那里做军事交流，他们会给你看些很劲爆的导弹演示。他们是有一个导弹控制系统没错，可你知道那玩意儿到底有没有用？看我口型，真的干仗时那玩意儿能像这片子里那样硬得起来么？”
"Until you know that for sure you simply assume they've got one heck of an interesting platform that might do us some harm ... but the reality might be far different."
“除非你像我这样了解他们的情况，不然估计你只能假设中国人真的有那么一个塞满了五花八门军事计划的作战平台………尽管那看起来很美。”
OTHER PROBLEMS
“中国军队面临的其他的问题”
One problem is the U.S. and EU arms embargo against China following the 1989 military crackdown on the pro-democracy Tiananmen protests, and there is little sign they will lift it any time soon.
中国军队的第一个问题在于先进武器的缺乏。美国和欧盟自89年天安门事件后就对中国采取了武器禁运措施，近期在武器贸易方面估计双方不会有所进展。
There's also inexperience.
第二个问题则是是缺乏实战经验。
Unlike the United States, currently engaged in two massive military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, China has not engaged in full battle for three decades.
中国不像美国天天在伊拉克和阿富汗锻炼军队，他已经有整整三十年没和人干过仗了。
China's last major confrontation was with Vietnam in 1979, and that was hardly a glorious victory. Chinese forces crossed the border to punish Hanoi for invading its ally Cambodia, but Vietnam's battle-hardened troops gave the Chinese a bloody nose.
中国上次大规模对战要追溯到1979年的对越战争，老实说那真不能算是场辉煌的胜利。为了替小兄弟柬埔寨出气，中国军队杀过边界直冲河内去惩罚越南，没想到被久经战阵的越军照准鼻子迎面一击，打得鲜血直流。
China has made some impressive technological advances. The successful missile "kill" of an old satellite in 2007 represented a new level of ability. In January, China successfully tested emerging technology aimed at destroying missiles in mid-air.
当然中国近些年在科技上是取得了很大的进步。诸如2007年把颗报废的老卫星打掉的“卫星杀手”导弹试验的成功，标志着中国军事科技进入新的阶段，还有今年一月份中国成功完成了中程导弹拦截试验。
Integrating such advances into the country's vast armed forces could be problematic though.
但如何将这些高技术含量的东西融入到庞大的军队体系中却又是个大难题。
"The (Sichuan) earthquake in 2008 showed their weakness in joint operations," said Lin Chong-Pin, a strategic studies professor at Taipei's Tamkang University.
“08年的四川地震将他们的弱点暴露无遗，”台湾淡江大学国际事务与战略研究所教授林中斌认为。
After the massive quake, Chinese soldiers involved in rescue efforts struggled with shortages and bottlenecks magnified by poor coordination between forces and units.
大地震过后，中国军人在救援时陷入了资源短缺，关键技术不到位等困境，很大一部分都是空地军事单位配合乏力导致了最后心有余而力不足的局面。
China's military edge over tech powerhouse Taiwan, a democratic island Beijing has threatened to eventually bring under its control, is growing though.
然而近来，随着中国军队羽翼日渐丰满，北京加大了对台湾这个民主岛屿的领土威胁，势必要将其纳入麾下。
Even then, not everyone is convinced China could easily overpower Taiwan, despite its advancing weaponry.
即使这样，不是每个人都确信中国能轻易制服台湾，不管他的武器有多先进。
"The point is to make the U.S. military stay at a distance," said Hsu Yung-ming, a political science professor at Taipei's Soochow University, referring to China's military modernization.
台湾东吴（苏州）大学的政治科学家徐永明教授回应中国军力现代化的时候表示：“只要美国继续顶我们，那就万事OK。”
Additional reporting by Chris Buckley in Beijing and Ralph Jennings in Taipei; Editing by Benjamin Kang Lim |
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发表于 2010-3-24 12:07
美国想跟中国打核战玩种族灭绝，就太幼稚太一厢情愿了，这也证明了中国从几十年前就开始的忽悠是成功的，美国现在再准备应对已经来不及了，谁叫你美国整天就知道跟苏联搞，而且一直戴着有色眼镜看中国，活该。
