本帖最后由 yangfuguang 于 2010-5-23 01:23 编辑
【10.5.21英国每日电讯】 【来源网址】http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7747774/China-holds-the-key-to-Korean-peace.html China holds the key to Korean peace The Beijing government must cast aside its softly-softly approach to Pyongyang, says Con Coughlin. By Con Coughlin
Published: 6:29AM BST 21 May 2010 Comments 17 | Comment on this article The wreckage of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan is salvaged by a giant offshore cranePhoto: AP Even by the standards of the military clashes that have become a perennial feature of life on the Korean peninsula, the sinking of a South Korean warship by a North Korean mini-submarine marks an alarming, and potentially catastrophic, escalation in tensions between the two countries. Since the end of the Second World War, there have been only two notable submarine actions that have resulted in the sinking of enemy ships, and both of them have taken place in time of war. The Indian frigate sunk by a Pakistani Daphne class submarine in 1971 was torpedoed during the Indo-Pakistani war, while the controversial attack on the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano by the Royal Navy's nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror was launched during the military campaign to liberate the Falkland Islands.
To that list must now be added the unprovoked torpedo attack on March 26 by a North Korean mini-sub on
the Cheonan, a 1,200 tonne South Korean corvette that sank with the loss of 46 lives. In naval warfare there is nothing sailors fear more than a submarine attack. A submarine's ability to manoeuvre undetected below the waves into an attacking position before launching its lethal cargo makes even the best-equipped naval vessels vulnerable. Certainly, the 104-strong crew of the Cheonan had no inkling that they were about to suffer a catastrophic hit as they undertook a routine patrol on the treacherous Yellow Sea, the scene of several previous naval confrontations between North and South Korea. Survivors of the attack have recounted how they were not put on any special alert before the attack, and were unaware that they were under threat from a North Korean mini-sub. One of the officers said the sound of the blast was so loud his eardrums burst. The sailors also insisted that they had not strayed from their normal patrol course, which was regularly undertaken to guard against possible North Korean incursions. At the time of the attack, the Chenoan was operating near Baengnyeong Island, a heavily garrisoned outpost off the North Korean coast. The area is the scene of regular clashes between the rival navies as the maritime boundary has been disputed since the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. Tensions have intensified since North Korea announced last year that it was abandoning the terms of the armistice, a move that prompted China to withdraw its 280-strong fishing fleet from the disputed waters. Last November a North Korean patrol boat was fired on by the South Korean navy after it entered South Korean waters and refused to return to the North. The North Korean ship was partially destroyed but managed to escape back across the Naval Limit Line, the disputed sea border between the two Koreas. The South Koreans were taking no chances after the North Koreans managed to seize a South Korean fishing vessel the previous July after it accidentally strayed into North Korean waters. But you have to go back to 1987 for a North Korean act of aggression comparable to the torpedo attack on the Cheonan, when two North Korean spies successfully planted a bomb in the luggage rack of a South Korean airliner, which exploded in mid-air killing 115. Even though one of the bombers provided a full confession, on that occasion the North Koreans escaped any retaliatory action – although Pyongyang's involvement was widely condemned at the UN. Whether the North Koreans are made to suffer the consequences of their involvement in the Cheonan disaster will depend on proving that the attack was premeditated, as opposed to being a catastrophic error of judgment. At present, Western military experts are leaning to the view that the commander of the North Korean vessel panicked under pressure and launched the torpedoes without considering the consequences of his action. "It is easy to imagine a scenario where a submarine commander believes he is about to come under attack and gives the order to fire," said a senior military intelligence officer. "Both navies are operating in a highly volatile area where the slightest wrong move by either side might be misinterpreted as a provocative act." But then, given the unstable nature of the North Korean regime, it is equally feasible that for some bizarre reason the attack was launched on the orders of Pyongyang. During the 1980s, when Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, was in the process of negotiating his own rise to power, the North Koreans were involved in a series of terrorist attacks on South Korea, which were undertaken to demonstrate Kim's allegiance to the North Korean cause. These included a bomb attack on a South Korean delegation undertaking an official visit to Burma, as well as the bombing of the Korean Air flight. A new succession battle is now said to be taking place in Pyongyang amid a flurry of reports that the 69-year-old Kim Jong-il is suffering from bad health. In 2008 "the Great Leader", as he is known throughout the country, was reported to have suffered a cerebral haemorrhage and lost the use of some of his limbs. The country's reclusive dictator is said to have made a partial recovery, to the extent that earlier this month he made an official visit to China, where he is understood to have discussed North Korea's economic plight, as well as Chinese approval for his plans to hand power over to Kim Jong-un, his third and youngest son. Kim Jong-un has been described by North Korean defectors as being "just like his father", and has the same hard-line political outlook and explosive temper as his father. Like his father and grandfather before him, Kim Jong-un has now been given the official North Korean sobriquet "The Brilliant Comrade". But Kim Jong-il's plans for the succession have attracted opposition, not least from Chang Sung-taek, the dictator's brother-in-law, who harbours ambitions of his own to assume leadership. In order to cement the younger Kim's power base and control of the army, it is possible that Pyongyang could have authorised a fresh round of attacks on South Korean targets, which resulted in the torpedo attack on the Cheonan. Whether the Cheonan was the result of a grave military error, or a casualty of renewed political in-fighting in Pyongyang, the challenge for South Korea and its allies now is how best to respond to the provocation. Seoul has promised retaliatory measures, and is pressing the United Nations Security Council to respond following the publication of an independent report which concluded that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan. But the West's options for responding to the attack are limited. Military action is out of the question, as it would only lead to a resumption of all-out war in the Korean peninsula, which would have disastrous consequences for South Korea. A new round of sanctions will achieve little, as North Korea is already subject to a crippling international sanctions regime because of its continued refusal to
co-operate over its nuclear programme. And any attempt by the UN to punish Pyongyang for its role in the Cheonan affair would inevitably meet with resistance from China, the regime's regional protector. For years, China has advocated a softly-softly approach to North Korea in the vain hope that Pyongyang could be persuaded to follow China's own transition from cultish despotism to economic reform. China will now argue that tough action against North Korea could further destabilise a regime that is already suffering from economic meltdown. This may well be the case, but if China has serious pretensions to becoming a major world power, then it needs to bring all its influence to bear on the North Korean regime to ensure that there is no recurrence of the Cheonan disaster. While the Chinese yesterday adopted their customary non-committal stance on North Korea, describing the Cheonan attack as "unfortunate", China is the only country that can exercise real influence on the Kim clan. Beijing's recent decision to back a new UN resolution for sanctions against Iran demonstrates that China is slowly waking up to the global responsibilities that go with being one of the world's leading powers. Now it must do the same with North Korea in order to prevent any escalation in hostilities. | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-5-23 01:21
提升卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2010-5-23 10:51
