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本帖最后由 批一啊pia 于 2010-12-2 17:48 编辑
【原文标题】Two Reasons India Will Overtake China By 2025
【中文标题】印度会在2025年前赶超中国的两个原因
【登载媒体】BusinessInsider
【来源地址】http://www.businessinsider.com/indian-demographics-2010-12
【译 者】批一啊pia
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用,未经AC或译者许可,不得转载。
【译 文】
Although the Commonwealth Games in Delhi ended up more like a joke compared with the Beijing Olympic Games, you cannot ignore the potential of the Indian economy.
尽管跟北京奥运会相比,在新德里结束的英联邦运动会看起来更像个笑话,但是你不能忽略印度经济的潜力。
In 1991, Indian economy was on the brink of total collapse after running a centrally planned economy since independence. The Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao, together with the Finance Minister Manmohan Singh (who is currently the Prime Minister), embarked on an economic reform to save the economy. They abolished the license Raj system, effectively liberalised many parts of the Indian economy. Now, we see an India which is a major centre for outsourcing from developed countries. The IT services industry in India is thriving on their cheap labour costs, educated and English-speaking workforce, and their entrepreneurial bosses.
1991年,自独立之后就实行计划经济之后,印度经济处于崩溃的边缘。当时的印度总理纳拉辛哈•拉奥与财政部长曼莫汉•辛格(印度现任总理)着手进行经济改革以挽救印度经济。他们废除了许可证为王的体系,有效地解放了印度经济中的大部分。现在我们可以看到,印度是发达国家的主要外包中心。印度的IT产业因其廉价的受过教育的讲英语的劳动力和他们具有创业精神的老板而得以成长。
Also as mentioned in previous discussions, India has a young and expanding workforces while China will probably face a serious ageing problem in 15-20 years time. In the longer-term, I believe this is giving India a very important advantage over China as it has a much healthier dependency ratio. Expanding workforce will certain means expanding output even if productivity gain is minimal, while China economic growth will have to be dependent on increasing productivity in 15-20 years time, all else being equal.
在之前的讨论中也提到过了,印度的年轻劳动力呈扩张势,而中国在15-20年内可能面临着严重的老龄化问题。从长远考虑,我认为这是印度相对中国的很重要的优势,那就是有一个良性的抚养比例。即使生产力很小,扩大的劳动力也必然意味着输出的扩大,而中国的经济增长在15-20年内取决于生产力增长,中印就差不多了。
Truth be told, India is still much poorer than China. The GDP per capita of India in 2009 was US$1,030.785 according to IMF, compared with China’s US$3,677.857, it was still just a fraction of it. China’s autocratic leadership might be able to make decision fast, versus the Indian democracy which slows down everything. That is why we have seen wonderfully organised Olympics and great infrastructure in China, which India would envy. However in the long run, I still see advantage in democracy (which I may elaborate later).
必须承认的是,印度还是比中国穷。根据IMF统计印度2009年的人均GDP是1,030.785美元,相比中国的3,677.857美元,印度只有三分之一不到。中国的独裁式领导也许在决策上十分迅速,而印度的民主能把所有的都放慢。这就是中国奥运会办得好、基础建设好的原因,也是印度羡慕的地方。但是从长远来看,我还是觉得民主制度有优势(后面我会详细说明)。
To quickly summarise, I believe demography matters in the economic rival between India and China. As India is still much poorer than China, perhaps it also makes sense to say that the need for catch up will mean a faster growth in the years to come. For investors, perhaps you should take an extra look at India.
快速总结一下,我相信在中印经济竞争中人口统计学很重要。因为印度现在还比中国穷很多,那么说需要追赶中国意味着在接下来更快地增长是说得通的。投资者们,也许你们应该多关注一下印度。 |
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