【外交政策0213】The Insider

lilyma06

The InsiderMeet Xi Jinping, China's heir apparent -- the cleanest, least offensive, most loyal politician the party could find.
   BY KERRY BROWN  |            FEBRUARY 13, 2012http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/13/the_insider


      
There is a joke in China that the CommunistParty actually doesn't mind elections, as long as it knows the outcome inadvance. So though the stately, plump Vice President Xi Jinping still needs to officiallystand for the position of general secretary to replace President Hu Jintao in October, theresult -- barring disaster -- seems pretty certain. For Xi, a former pig farmerand provincial leader, and the scion of one of the reddest families in China, thelast five years have been a campaign with Chinese characteristics to ensurethat when he steps out behind the red curtain at the Great Hall of the Peoplein six months' time, the last thing on anyone's mind will be a sense ofsurprise.


Xi, the son of a formervice premier, with an easy smile and the paternalistic manner of a well-seasonedChinese leader, seemed destined to rise to the top. During the CulturalRevolution, Xi, like many educated youth, spent a decade farming in thebackward inland province of Shaanxi; residents named him party secretary of thevillage soon after his arrival, afirst among the 29,000 youths sent to the province from Beijing.
His real political career took off in thewealthy coastal province of Fujian, where he worked himself up to governor in the1990s and avoided being implicated in a massivesmuggling scandal. Appointed party boss in 2002 of the dynamic Zhejiangprovince, he briefly ran Shanghai after the felling of Party Secretary ChenLiangyu for corruption in 2007 before being elevated to the all-important PolitburoStanding Committee during the party congress later that same year. He has beentalked of as Hu's replacement ever since -- and like Hu, his ability in Fujianand Shanghai to avoid major scandals has stood him in good stead.
But it wasn't always clear that he wouldrise this far. In 1997, Xi, while still in Fujian as deputy party secretary, camein dead last in a vote by delegates for the 344-strong Central Committee, composed of the elite leaders of the Communist Party, largely because of a backlash againstprincelings, the sons and daughters of high-level officials. Xi took it instride. In the space of only a decade, distaste for his privileged upbringing hasbeen diluted by appreciation of his administrative abilities, his relativelyclean record,and his ability to overseebooming economic growth in the provinces he has run. Unlike former President Jiang Zemin or current Premier WenJiabao, Xi's immediate family appears clean: His 19-year-old daughter is tooyoung to be involved in business, and his wife too famous as an Army singer torisk the most obvious manifestations of corruption.
Like all good Chinese politicians, Xi usedhis family connections to his advantage, mobilizing support by calling upon hisextensive networks of military and party elite. He has many friends among the party'selder establishment, people who know and trust him and his father,among them former Party Secretary Jiang and Jiang's chief politicalstrategist and former Politburo Standing Committee member Zeng Qinghong. Healso has links with the military through a brief stint as a private secretaryto a People's Liberation Army general in the 1980s.
Ever since the death of Deng Xiaoping endedthe era of Chinese political strongmen, the key to success in elite politics ishaving fewer enemies than your potential competitors do. It's no longer enoughto have heady support from a narrow range of figures. Although the party might notbe ecstatic about Xi, as it showed during the voting in 1997, his elevationwill alienate the smallest number of elites. And because of his broad network, manynow stand to gain once he ascends to China's top post.
Perhaps more important is Xi's ability toplay by the rules of the system that nurtured him. In March 2007, Xi moved toShanghai to serve as the city's party secretary. According to the Hong Kongmagazine Open, he was initially showna luxury apartment, the size of which far exceeded the 250-square-meter limit allocated to senior provincial leaders. Xi turned it down with the comment thatit could be better used as a convalescent home for elderly cadres, thus neatlysidestepping a potential black mark on his record.

Xi has also succeeded in avoiding knottyissues like health-care reform and social unrest. Those issues havebeen left to his Politburo colleague and possible rival Li Keqiang, who has beengiven these thankless policy areas, supposedly to train him for the job of premier.Xi, meanwhile, has been tasked with managing macroeconomic policy, overseeing the2008 Beijing Olympics, and running the Central Party School -- a relativelystraightforward and more glamorous portfolio. Despite the 2008 economic slowdown,China has continued to produce impressive GDP growth, and the Olympics wereconsidered extremely successful from a domestic perspective. And Xi, like Hubefore he ascended to party secretary, looks after Sino-Americanrelations, which accounts for his visit to the United States this month. Li hasthe less attractive and more difficult job of maintaining positive links with afractious European Union. It's impossible to say whether Xi received his portfoliobecause of luck or because of his ability to convince the party's powerful OrganizationDepartment to task him with an easier job than his rival, but it's one of the main reasons forhis success.
Unlike in the United States, wherepoliticians campaign on their outsider status, a desire to change the system,and a willingness to take responsibility for problems the country faces, Xi'sslogan might as well be "the buck stops there." Xi shares the skill fordeflection with his predecessor, Hu. As party secretary of Tibet in the monthsleading up to the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprisings, Hu mysteriously went missingon the night of April 29, when protesters attacked a police station in Lhasa,according to China analyst Willy Lam. Because of his absence, the head of thelocal police had to shoulder the responsibility of calling in the Army. Thegamble paid off: The troops quelled the unrest, and the hard-line leadership inBeijing praised Hu for his actions. But had the Army failed, Hu would have beenable to blame his subordinate.
But Xi hasn't wholly escaped controversy.He was married before, briefly, to thedaughter of a former Chinese ambassador to Britain, who lived in the United States and now resides in Hong Kong. The fact that she chose to stay abroad and that Xiwould be the first divorcé since Mao Zedong to run China has already created controversy.Some Chinese Internet commentators have claimed he plagiarized all or part ofthe Ph.D. thesis he wrote while governor of Fujian. And some see his decision tosend his daughter to Harvard University as a vote of no confidence in the country'seducation system. None of these issues will derail his rise.
For the next six months, like Hu prior tohis ascension to party chairman in 2002, Xi will lay low, producing at most ascreed of accepted formula that won't leave him vulnerable to attack within the party. In January, Xi gave a grindingly orthodox talk on the need for culturalwholesomeness and the need for more"ideologicalcontrol"over students. He parrotsHu in his quest not to offend his predecessor, talking of the need to preserveharmony, guard against forces of instability, and push "core socialist values,"all Hu buzzwords. Nothing he has said publicly prefigures any radicaldeparture from the previous decade. In the U.S. presidential campaign,surprise, grandiose declarations, and the daily clash among contenders formpart of the testing process of possible candidates. The Chinese keep contentionwell out of sight; the less Xi looks like he is actually chasing the top slot,the better it is for him.
What lies behind the formal exterior thatXi presents to the world -- the side Americans will see during his visit -- isanyone's guess. During a 2009 visit to Latin America, he was caught on record railing against foreigners "withfull bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at ourcountry." To which he added: "China does not export revolution, hunger,poverty, nor does China cause you any headaches. Just what else do youwant?" This rare outburst, however, was the only time he publiclystrayed from message. Everything in his background suggests he is a faithful,loyal conventional follower of party orthodoxy who has never been put in aposition to question how the party functions or how it might undertake radicalinternal reform. From what we know, Xi is red -- through and through. There have been no rallying cries like those ofWen Jiabao for deeper political reform and wholesale change to the system.
The Chinese system is set up not forsomeone with big, bold ideas, but for the ultimate insider, the person with thebest networks and the biggest vested interest in making the system work. Andthat person is Xi. The party elite need someone who can keep the economyhumming and keep a lid on social discontent. But while Xi might be the bestthing for Beijing, it might not be for the rest of the people of China.



该贴已经同步到 lilyma06的微博