【金融时报】Recovery hopes lift global stocks

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Recovery hopes lift global stocks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9725adce-4c7c-11de-a6c5-00144feabdc0.html

By David Oakley in London, Mure Dickie in Tokyo and Amy Kazmin in New Delhi
Published: May 29 2009 19:45 | Last updated: May 29 2009 22:21

Global stocks rose again on Friday, capping their longest winning streak since the start of the financial crisis, as news from Japan and India raised hopes that the global recession might be nearing an end.

One leading global equity indicator, the FTSE All World index, hit its highest levels of the year on Friday as shares saw their third month of consecutive gains for the first time since August 2007.

US stocks posted their third consecutive month of gains and the biggest three month percentage gain in 10 years as investors reacted to encouraging data on the economy and higher oil prices.

Commodity prices, an important gauge of economic revival, also saw strong gains, with oil prices going above $66 a barrel in their biggest monthly jump in 10 years.

Commodities ended the month up 14 per cent, the biggest monthly jump since July 1974, according to the leading Reuters/Jefferies CRB index.

“Confidence is higher than at any time since the credit crisis erupted,” said Gary Jenkins, a senior strategist at the London-based Evolution bank. “Hopes are rising that this is a lasting revival.”

Share prices in Japan and India rose to seven and eight-month highs after fresh data in both countries boosted investors’ hopes of recovery.

In Japan, industrial production surged 5.2 per cent in April, fuelling hopes that the worst of the slump was over for the world’s second-largest economy.

While output was still more than 30 per cent down on the same month last year, the unexpectedly strong rise recorded for April meant Japan’s overall economy might have returned to growth after suffering two record quarterly declines.

India reported growth of 5.8 per cent in gross domestic product for the first quarter compared with a year ago – a figure that was higher than expected – in spite of a contraction in industrial output.

However, poor data out of the US reminded investors of the fragile state of the world economy.

Revisions to first-quarter GDP confirmed the US was contracting sharply, while the Chicago purchasing managers’ index, an indicator of activity, remained extremely weak.

Analysts say the markets could be vulnerable to a sell-off because lending to companies and individuals remains constrained with banks continuing to hoard cash as they seek to repair their balance sheets.

On the currency front, sterling and the Australian dollar touched seven and eight-month highs respectively against the US dollar. Both currencies are beneficiaries of growing risk appetite, while the dollar typically weakens amid rising confidence of a revival.

Additional reporting by Lindsay Whipp

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