本帖最后由 vivicat 于 2009-10-8 00:19 编辑
【中文标题】中国的独生子女政策奏效了吗？
【原文标题】Has China's one-child policy worked?
【登载媒体】BBC
【原文链接】http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7000931.stm
【译者】满仓
In the first of a series of pieces on China's one-child policy, the BBC's Michael Bristow looks at whether the country's controversial regulations are working.
针对中国的独生子女政策，BBC记者Michael Bristow深入调查，试图了解这个国家饱受争议的政策是否起到了应有的作用？
Some parents in China are happy with one child
中国的一些父母对于一个孩子感到比较愉快。
China's family planning policy has prevented 400 million births, officials say.
据官方的报道，中国的计划生育政策减少了4亿人口的出生。
Since the regulations were introduced in 1978, China has kept its population in check using persuasion, coercion and encouragement.
自从1978年实施该项政策以来，中国为达到控制人口的目的，使用了劝说、恐吓和奖励等手段。
And it looks likely that, nearly 30 years after the policy was first introduced, it will not be relaxed to allow couples to have more children.
然而似乎在政策实施30年后的今天，政府依然不能允许夫妻生育第二个子女。
Many Chinese and foreign academics believe this is a mistake and will result in a number of serious demographic problems in the future.
很多中外学者都认为这是一个错误，将会在将来导致人口学上一系列严重的后果。
At a press conference earlier this year, Chinese officials were keen to declare the controversial policy a success.
在今年年初的一次新闻发布会上，中国政府官员热烈地宣称这项有争议的政策实际是成功的。
"Because China has worked hard over the last 30 years, we have 400 million fewer people," said Zhang Weiqing, minister in charge of the National Population and Family Planning Commission. "Compared with the world's other developing countries with large populations, we have realised this transformation half a century ahead of time."
“由于中国在过去30年的努力，我们减少了4亿人口。”国家人口和计划生育委员会主任张维庆说，“相比于世界上其他发展中国家，我们提前半个世纪认识到了转变的重要性。”
A team of independent Chinese and foreign academics, who this year completed what they say is the first systematic examination of the policy, agree that China has managed to limit its population growth.
一个独立的中外学者研究团队在今年完成了他们所宣称的第一次系统检验该政策的效果，他们赞同中国的确设法减少了人口增长这一说法。
But team leader Wang Feng, of the University of California, Irvine, says this reduction is mainly due to a fall in the fertility rate in the 1970s, rather than any more recent initiatives.
但是团队队长，加利福尼亚大学的王峰（音译）说，人口减少的主要原因是70年代生育率的降低，而不是近期任何举措的结果。
During the 1970s, China began encouraging delayed marriages, longer intervals between births and fewer children.
在70年代，中国开始鼓励晚婚、多个孩子之间尽量拉长时间，以及尽量少生育。
"The total fertility rate - the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime - was reduced from over five to slightly over two," Prof Wang says.
王教授说：“整体出生率——即一个妇女在生命周期中生育的子女数量——从5以上降低到稍高于2。”
All this happened before the current family planning policy was introduced in 1978.
而这些都发生在1978年实施计划生育政策之前。
'Too busy'
“太忙了”
The fall in fertility rates is also, at least partly, due to improving social and economic circumstances.
生育率的降低至少部分还应当归因于社会和经济环境的进步。
In other East Asian countries, such as Thailand and South Korea, modernisation has led to women having fewer children, and yet these countries do not have strict family planning policies.
在东亚的其他一些国家，比如泰国和韩国，现代化的进程让妇女生产的数量越来越少，而这些国家都没有严格的计划生育政策。
中国人口的增长趋势。（译者注：纵坐标为人口数量，单位百万，横坐标为年份。）
But Professor Wang does admit that China's family planning policies since 1978 have helped reduce the fertility rate further and contributed to a change in attitudes.
但是王教授也承认中国1978年的计划生育政策帮助进一步降低了出生率，并且让人们在态度上发生了。
"A lot of people simply don't want that many children. People have accepted the policy," he says.
他说：“很多人自己不想要更多的子女，他们接受了这项政策。”
This is particularly true in urban areas, where most couples interviewed by the BBC say they are happy with just one child.
这一现象在城市地区比较普遍，很多接受BBC采访的人都说觉得一个孩子很好。
Beijing mother-of-one Zhao Hui, who has a four-year-old daughter called Zhang Jin'ao, says she has never wanted more than one child.
北京的一个独生子女母亲赵慧（音译）有一个四岁的女儿张金傲（音译），她说她从来没有想过再要一个孩子。
"One child is enough. I'm too busy at work to have any more," says the 38-year-old, who works in the housing sector."It wouldn't matter what my financial situation was or what the government regulations were, I'd still only want one child," she adds.
这位在房管局工作的38岁妇女说：“一个孩子足够了，我工作太忙了，无法照顾更多的孩子。其实不管我的经济状况和国家政策如何，我就只想要一个孩子。”
Most of her friends, she says, think the same way.
她的很多朋友和她的想法一样。
Forced abortions
强迫流产
But there is a more sinister aspect to this policy, which is sometimes employed to make women less willing than Ms Zhao accept the rules.
但是，这项政策更有其邪恶的一面，这有时让其他妇女无法像赵女士那样愿意接受这项政策。
Activist Chen Guangcheng was sent to prison last year for exposing what he says were over-zealous health workers in Linyi city, Shandong Province.
去年，活动家陈广承（音译）因曝光了山东省临沂市“过分尽职”的保健员而被捕入狱。
China has rejected calls to change its one-child policy
中国拒绝了更改计划生育政策的呼声。
He says they illegally forced women to have late-term abortions and be sterilised.
他说这些人强迫妇女做晚期流产，并且导致终生不育。
China also faces profound and widespread demographic problems because of its family planning rules, according to some.
有些人说，中国因为执行计划生育政策，将会面临深远的和广泛的人口问题。
Chinese officials say the current fertility rate is between 1.7 and 1.8 births per woman, well below the 2.1 births needed to keep the population at a stable level.
中国政府官员说当前的出生率是平均每个妇女1.7到1.8，这个数字远低于维持人口稳定所必须的2.1出生率。
Overseas experts dispute this figure; they say the fertility rate is even lower and stands at 1.5.
海外专家质疑这个数字，他们认为真正的出生率应该只有1.5。
This will result in an increasing proportion of older people, a smaller workforce to look after them and a disproportionate number of boys to girls.
这将会导致老龄人口比率增加，相对少数的工作人口要侍养相对多数的老龄人口，并且还导致了男女性别比例不均。
There are other problems too. China might have restricted its population growth, but this has not always helped solve wider problems, as was envisaged when the policy was first introduced in 1978.
问题不仅仅是这些。中国或许成功抑制了人口的增长，但是这并没有解决1978年政策实施时就期望的那些问题。
Reducing the number of people, for example, does not automatically help the environment, as China has found.
例如，降低人口的数量并没有自动解决环境问题。
Prof Wang says the policy needs to be relaxed if China is to solve some of these problems.
王教授说，如果中国真的想解决这些问题，必须放松计划生育政策。
There are at least a few people inside China who agree with that assessment.
至少，中国国内有一些人是赞同以上这些观点的。
During this year's parliamentary session in March, 29 members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a government advisory body, suggested allowing couples to have two children.
在今年3月份举行的两会中，作为政府的一个咨询机构，中国人民政治协商会议的29名代表建议允许夫妻生育两个孩子。
But that suggestion will probably fall on deaf ears, at least until the end of the government's current five-year plan, which ends in 2010.
但是，这项建议很可能只落入了聋子的耳朵，至少在政府未来的5年计划中是这样的。
At the press conference earlier this year, Minister Zhang said there was not the "slightest doubt" about the need to continue with the policy.
在今年年初的记者招待会中，张主任说执行这项政策的必要性没有“一点值得怀疑”。
China might face serious consequences because of that attitude in the not-too-distant future.
中国在不久的将来会面临这种态度带来的严重后果。
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发表于 2009-10-6 09:19
