China’s Deng Dictum on Korea-to-Climate Dangers Imperiling G20

aha

China’s Deng Dictum on Korea-to-Climate Dangers Imperiling G20
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ap91XPl7Wld8&refer=uk

By Dune Lawrence and Michael Forsythe Last Updated: April 19, 2009 17:00 EDT

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Deng Xiaoping, China’s late leader, said in the early 1990s that his country should “hide its capabilities and bide its time.” China stopped hiding a long time ago. Now the world wants it to stop biding.

This week the United Nations will consider imposing economic sanctions on North Korea for its April 5 rocket launch, a step China may be reluctant to take. Global leaders will meet in Copenhagen this December to forge new rules to combat climate change and are calling on China, the world’s biggest polluter, to limit its carbon emissions.

Both issues will challenge the Middle Kingdom’s traditional reticence on the political front. While China had a flurry of economic advice for the richest members of the Group of 20 nations before this month’s summit, the world’s most populous nation hasn’t taken a global role commensurate with its size.

“Without China on board, there are so many challenges that the world simply can’t deal with: the financial crisis, reforming the International Monetary Fund, North Korea, climate change,” says Shada Islam, an Asia specialist at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

Experts in China say the country is still following Deng’s advice and focusing on economic growth, which in the first three months of this year grew 6.1 percent from a year earlier, the slowest rate in almost 10 years, as the global financial crisis curbed exports. Its leaders also must balance global priorities, often set by the U.S., with their own national interest on issues such as nuclear proliferation and global warming.

Diplomatic Test

China’s diplomatic skills are being tested this month by North Korea, which last week announced its rejection of international negotiations on disarmament, dealing a potentially fatal blow to China’s main international security initiative.

China, host of the so-called six-party talks, has so far stuck to its message of “calmness and restraint,” even after North Korea said on April 14 that it would pull out of the process, which also includes the U.S., Russia, Japan and South Korea.

That day China said it “disagrees on a Security Council resolution on the launch, let alone new sanctions.” The talks stalled last year over the refusal of Kim Jong-Il’s regime to let inspectors remove samples of its Yongbyon reactor.
“This is a blow to their image as this new responsible stakeholder and as a mover and shaker on the international scene,” says Willy Wo-Lap Lam, an adjunct professor of history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Their previous insistence that the U.S. and Japan should treat North Korea with tolerance failed to accomplish anything.”

Condemning the Launch

China did agree on April 11 to join the 14 other members of the UN Security Council in condemning the launch and calling for implementation by April 24 of previously approved sanctions, which would freeze foreign assets of some North Korean companies.

Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, says the Chinese stance allowed the council to unanimously adopt a statement “that showed North Korea that there are consequences for their actions.” She added: “China is playing an increasingly important and visible role on the world stage.”

From China’s point of view, the West’s position on North Korea isn’t necessarily best for China. Leaders must balance their desire for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula with maintaining stability in North Korea and preventing an influx of refugees along their 880-mile (1,416-kilometer) border.

Climate Change

Climate change is a second area where pressure continues to mount for concrete leadership as China pursues a mostly domestic agenda. The UN and environmental groups are calling for 192 countries to negotiate a new deal that minimizes the chances of dangerous effects of global warming such as rising sea levels and increased droughts.
The U.S. sees a loss of competitiveness if it accepts binding targets while China takes no action. China says it’s up to developed countries to act first, as they’re responsible for the bulk of historical emissions.

“The question is whether they are going to have a very different attitude going into Copenhagen, and show some leadership,” says Ken Lieberthal, Asia director on the National Security Council for President Bill Clinton and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Xie Zhenhua, China’s top official on climate change, said in Washington last month that China is already taking “active measures” to reduce emissions. He didn’t say what China would support at Copenhangen.

Little Leverage

China also has done little to leverage its trade and investment relations with countries such as Sudan, Zimbabwe and Myanmar to help the international community resolve political and humanitarian crises there.

The problem is that China views those countries through a “mercantilist” lens, putting narrow economic interests -- oil from Iran and Sudan, for example -- ahead of global concerns, according to Dennis Wilder, who until January directed Asia policy at the White House National Security Council.

“China still does not see their global responsibilities in the way that great powers tend to see their responsibilities,” says Wilder, now a visiting fellow at Brookings.

The Asian nation, now the world’s third-biggest economy, has made noises about playing a more active role. In his work report on March 5 during the annual legislative session -- the equivalent of the U.S. State of the Union -- Premier Wen Jiabao said China would “make new contributions to the proper resolution of hot spot issues and global problems” in 2009.

Seeking Safety

Ahead of the G20 meeting in London, Wen asked the U.S. to guarantee the safety of China’s record $744.2 billion in Treasury securities, and central-bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan floated the idea of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar. Zhou is likely to attend an IMF meeting this week in Washington.

Neither of those items was mentioned, though, when Chinese President Hu Jintao met with President Barack Obama in London, according to two U.S. administration officials who attended the meeting.

Obama, 47, says he will place greater emphasis on diplomacy to resolve disputes. At their London meeting, the two presidents inaugurated regular talks on political and economic ties. Obama told Hu, 66, that global issues can’t be resolved unless China and the U.S. work together, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“China must be part of the solution” on combating climate change, confronting humanitarian crises and addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said in an April 10 speech in Washington.

Political Capital

China is picky about where it expends political capital. It is pursuing a prominent role in Africa and Southeast Asia, where it can dominate, according to Huang Jing, a visiting professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. In most cases, however, the nation will continue to hang back, he says.

“On those so-called hot-spot issues, China will wait to see what America is going to do, or even what America’s allies are going to do, and then China will make its move,” says Huang. Its strategy is to “try to maximize their interests and minimize their responsibility, to pay the lowest price for the highest gains.”

That’s in keeping with Deng’s advice in his famous 24- character dictum. He urged his compatriots to “secure our position,” master the art of “maintaining a low profile” -- and “never claim leadership.”

Iam_zhcn