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翻译人员：两岸茶馆版版主---griffin_zhou
Why India Will Beat China （by William Nobrega）Insight July 22, 2008, 8:48AM EST
为什么印度将超过中国
An entrenched and vibrant democracy will ultimately drive India to outperform China socially and economically
一种根深蒂固的和活跃的民主制度最终将推动印度超越中国的社会和经济
Authoritarian regimes often yield impressive short-term economic results, as seen in Germany in the 1930s, the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Brazil in the 1960s, and China in the 1990s. Unencumbered by such things as property rights, legal recourse, and public debate, the authoritarian regime can harness significant economic and political resources to create impressive industrial and economic feats.
专制政权往往令人印象深刻的产量短期的经济成果，如德国在20世纪30年代，苏联在20世纪50年代，巴西在20世纪60年代，和中国在20世纪90年代。未通过诸如知识产权，诉诸法律，并公开辩论，在专制政权可以利用重大的经济和政治资源来创造令人印象深刻的工业和经济功勋。
Conversely, democratic regimes tend to be sloppy affairs with loud public discourse, a vocal press, stubborn land owners, and a myriad of civil liberties. Far from being able to harness economic resources, the government often must act more as a regulator. The result is that there are very few grandiose government-sponsored projects. Instead, there are countless private-sector initiatives driven by the invisible hand of the market. While the authoritarian regime is envied by some, the fact is that longer term, this type of socioeconomic model has typically led to economic and social distortions.
反之，民主制度往往是草率事务与公共话语响亮的声音新闻，顽固的土地所有者，以及无数的公民自由。远远没有能够利用经济资源，政府往往必须采取更象是一个稳压器。其结果是，很少有宏伟的政府赞助的项目。相反，有无数的私营部门倡议的推动下，无形的市场之手。虽然独裁政权是羡慕一些，但事实是，从长远看，这种类型的社会经济模式，通常会导致经济和社会的扭曲。
That is the dilemma that China faces today. Since the 1980s, the Chinese government has focused on developing an export-driven economy supported by an artificially undervalued currency. Foreign direct investment was encouraged while domestic consumption was limited. Massive infrastructure projects were initiated, fueled by a growing trade surplus, with cities sprouting up in the hinterlands like some mythical phoenix. For years, the Chinese economy benefited from these policies with double-digit gross domestic product growth, vast foreign currency reserves, and ever increasing capital inflows.
这是困境，中国今天所面临的。 20世纪80年代以来，中国政府把重点放在发展中国家的出口导向型经济的支持人为低估的货币。外国直接投资，同时鼓励国内消费是有限的。大规模的基础设施项目已开始，由于越来越多的贸易顺差，与城市发芽，在内地像一些神秘的凤凰。多年来，中国经济受益于这些政策与两位数的国内生产总值的增长，大量的外汇储备，以及日益增加的资本流入。
Inflation Could Spark Social Unrest
通货膨胀可能引发社会动乱
But now the economic and social distortions have begun to appear with rising inflation rates, numerous asset bubbles, looming overcapacity, and rampant institutionalized corruption. The Chinese government finds itself in a quandary. If the government allows its currency to rapidly appreciate to reduce inflation it will drive down exports and fuel unemployment. If it fails to quell inflation, social unrest will quickly unfold.
但是，现在的经济和社会的扭曲已经开始出现上升的通货膨胀率，许多资产泡沫，出现生产能力过剩，以及猖獗的制度化的腐败。中国政府发现自己处于窘境。如果政府允许人民币快速升值以降低通货膨胀率将降低出口和燃料失业。如果它不能以平息通货膨胀，社会动荡将很快展开。
But even if the hare is running into obstacles of its own design, how will it give India the competitive edge? The advantage comes in the form of an entrenched and vibrant democracy that will ultimately drive India to outperform China socially and economically. Messy, frustrating, and more often than not agonizingly slow, India's democracy would seem to be chaotic at the surface. But if you look deeper you will quickly see why the tortoise will win this race. Let's take a look at two of the major advantages that India's democracy provides:
但即中国已经陷入了其自身固有的发展障碍，那如何让印度的竞争优势呢？印度的优势是在形式的一种根深蒂固的和活跃的民主制度。这最终推动印度超越中国的社会和经济。杂乱，令人沮丧，而且往往是令人痛苦的缓慢，印度的民主似乎是混乱的表面。但如果你看看你会更深很快明白为什么乌龟将会赢得这场比赛。让我们来看看在两个主要的优势，印度的民主制度规定：
• Property Rights: As India becomes urbanized many families will choose to sell or borrow against their land so that they can start businesses, buy apartments, or provide education opportunities for their children. India is at the beginning of a gradual migration that is being driven by the development of high-end manufacturing and other sunrise industries that will require a vast pool of semiskilled and skilled labor.
产权：由于印度成为城市许多家庭将选择出售或借用对他们的土地，使他们能够开办企业，购买的公寓，或提供教育机会，她们的孩子。印度是在开始逐步迁移正在驱动开发高端制造业和其他朝阳产业，将需要大量的半熟练和熟练劳动力。
This migration will create an increasingly urban India that is expected to attract more than 200 million rural inhabitants to urban centers by 2025, primarily in what are known as secondary or "B & C" cities.
这种转移将创造一个日益城市印度，预计将吸引超过200万农村居民的城市中心，到2025年，主要是在所谓的二次或“ B ＆C ”类的城市。
This transition will facilitate the sale of land holdings by an estimated 30 million farmers and 170 million other individuals indirectly tied to the agricultural sector. The sale of these holdings is expected to generate more than $1 trillion in capital by 2025. This capital will have a multiplier effect on the Indian economy that could exceed $3 trillion. The development of the mortgage-backed security and asset-backed security markets, driven by financial institutions like Citigroup (C), will create the liquidity required to free up this capital.
这种转变将有利于出售土地资产的估计有30万农民和170万其他个人间接联系的农业部门。出售这些资产预计将超过1万亿美元的资本，到2025年，这种资本将产生乘数效应的印度经济可能超过3万亿美元。发展住房抵押贷款的安全和资产支持证券市场的推动下，金融机构如花旗集团（C），将创建所需的流动资金，以腾出这个资本。
China, by contrast, has no rural property rights. China's 750 million rural residents who lease land are at the mercy of the local and regional government as to what compensation they will receive, if any, when they are forced from the land as a result of development, infrastructure improvements, etc. Additionally they have no right to borrow against their lease, and as such they have no assets. In fact, the Chinese government's official figures state that more than 200,000 hectares of rural land are taken from rural residents every year with little or no compensation. According to some estimates, between 1992 and 2005 20 million farmers were evicted from agriculture due to land acquisition, and between 1996 and 2005 more than 21% of arable land in China has been put to non-agriculture use.
中国相反，没有农村的财产权。中国的7.5亿农村居民谁租赁土地的摆布，地方和区域政府以什么补偿，他们将收到，如果有的话，当他们被迫离开土地，由于发展，基础设施的改善，等等此外他们没有权利对他们借租赁，这样，他们没有资产。事实上，中国政府的官方数字指出，多于200000公顷的农村土地是从农村居民每年很少或根本没有赔偿。根据一些估计， 1992年和2005年的2000万农民被逐出农业由于土地收购，并从1996年到2005年超过21 ％的耕地在中国已非农业使用。
The result is not unexpected, with over 87,000 mass incidents (or riots) reported in 2005, a 50% increase from 2003. Many provincial governments in China have begun to use plainclothes policemen to beat, intimidate, or otherwise subdue any peasant that dares to oppose these land grabs. And, as would be expected, the beneficiaries from these policies are developers and corrupt government officials.
结果并不出人意料，有超过8.7万群体性事件（或暴乱）报告， 2005年增长50 ％ ，从2003年。许多省级政府在中国已经开始使用便衣警察殴打，恐吓，或以其他方式征服任何农民敢反对这些土地的争夺。而且，可以预期，受益者从这些政策的开发商和腐败的政府官员。
• Rule of Law: The rule of law is a fundamental cornerstone of any modern society. India has a legal system that has been in place for well over 100 years. This legal system is internationally respected and includes laws that protect intellectual property as well as physical property. The rule of law creates predictability and stability that allows entrepreneurial behavior to flourish. This is clearly evident in India, with more than 6,000 companies listed in the stock exchanges, compared to approximately 2,000 in China. More telling is the fact that of the 6,000 listed companies in India only approximately 100 are state-owned. This stands in stark contrast to China, where more than 1,200 of the 2,000 companies listed on the exchanges are state-owned.
法治：法治是一个根本的基石任何现代社会。印度的法律制度，已有超过100年。这一法律制度是国际上受到尊重，包括法律，保护知识产权以及物理性能。法治的建立可预测性和稳定性，使企业行为的蓬勃发展。这是显而易见的在印度，有超过6000上市公司在证券交易所相比，大约在2000年中国。更有说服力的事实是， 6000的上市公司在印度只有大约100个都是国有。这站了鲜明的对照中国，在那里的1200多名2000年上市的公司交往是国有。
Can there be any doubt as to where the next Microsoft (MSFT) or Intel (INTC) will be created? Certainly not China!
能有任何疑问，下一个微软（ MSFT ）或英特尔（ INTC ）将建立？当然不是中国！
More than 100 Indian companies that completed initial public offerings as midcap companies now have a market capitalization of over $1 billion. Companies such as Jet Airways (JET.BO), Bharti Tele-Ventures, Infosys Technologies (INFY), Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO), Tata Motors (TTM) (which just acquired Jaguar), Wipro Technologies (WIT), and Hindalco Industries (HALC.BO) are becoming multinational competitors with globally recognized brands. China also has numerous companies that have a market capitalization of over $1 billion, but the majority of these are state-owned behemoths recognized by their sheer size and not their nimbleness.
100多名印度公司完成首次公开募股的中型公司现在的市值超过10亿美元。公司如喷气航空公司（ JET.BO ） ， Bharti电信公司， Infosys科技（ INFY ） ， Reliance通信（ RLCM.BO ） ，塔塔汽车公司（ 12个月） （其中刚刚获得捷豹） ，维普罗技术公司（改善小组） ，以及印度铝工业（ HALC.BO ）正在成为跨国公司的竞争对手与全球公认的品牌。中国也有许多公司，市值超过10亿美元，但其中多数都是国有庞然大物承认其规模庞大，而不是他们的灵活性。
When the rule of law is recognized by investors and foreign companies as something that is beyond question it serves to facilitate additional investments in research and development. For instance, 150 of the top global multinationals now have research and development bases in India. Additionally the U.S. Food & Drug Administration has certified more companies in India then in any other country outside the U.S., a testament to the innovation that free markets and the rule of law foster.
当法治是公认的投资者和外国公司的东西是毫无疑问的服务，以促进更多的投资，研究和开发。举例来说， 150个全球顶级跨国公司现在有研究与发展基地在印度。此外，美国食品和药物管理局已认证的越来越多的公司在印度然后在任何其他国家在美国以外的地区，证明了创新，自由市场和法治的促进。
Little Protection for IP in China
小保护知识产权在中国
China has a legal system that does little to protect intellectual and physical property rights, a fact highlighted in the 2007 edition of the International Property Rights Index, which ranks China with Nigeria in protecting intellectual property rights. In fact, China's illegal copying of movies, music, and software cost companies $2.2 billion in 2006 sales, according to an estimate by lobby groups representing Microsoft, Walt Disney (DIS), and Vivendi (VIV.PA). This figure may in fact be understated as it does not include pirated products that have been shipped to overseas markets by government-controlled Chinese companies.
中国的法律制度，没有一点保护知识产权和人身财产权利，这一事实强调了2007年版的国际知识产权指数排名中国与尼日利亚在保护知识产权。事实上，中国的非法复制电影，音乐和软件公司的费用为22亿美元在2006年的销售，据估计游说团体代表微软，迪士尼（ DIS ）和维旺迪（ VIV.PA ） 。这个数字实际上可能被低估，因为它不包括盗版产品已运往海外市场由政府控制的中国公司。
The rule of law when applied evenly and justly in a democratic society also helps to ensure that wealth accumulation does not favor those individuals in political office or individuals connected to those in political office.
当法律条例被引用时，公平和公正是一个民主社会也有助于确保财富积累不赞成这些人在政治职位或个人连接到那些在政治职务。
Democracy is a messy thing, especially when you have an electorate that exceeds 600 million people who are motivated to vote. However, democracy also helps to ensure that individual liberties are respected and that the government is responsive and beholden to the will of the people, rich or poor. A democracy also ensures accountability through impartial courts that help enforce and protect such things as property rights, environmental rights, human rights, and good governance.
民主是一个混乱的事情，尤其是当你有一个选民超过6亿人谁是出于投票。然而，民主也有助于确保个人自由受到尊重，并确保政府的反应和感激人民的意愿，富国还是穷国。一个民主体制也确保公正的问责制通过法院协助执行和保护诸如知识产权，环境权，人权和良好治理。
India's democracy is far from perfect, but it is also quite young, and as incomes rise and the populace becomes more informed we can expect that India's government institutions will become more responsive and transparent.
印度的民主是远远不够完善，但它也是相当年轻，随着收入的增长和民众变得更加通知我们可以预期，印度的政府机构将变得更加敏感和透明的。
And what about the hare? Consider this fact: A recent survey found that of the 20,000 richest men in China, more than 95% were directly related to Communist party officials. Where would you place your bet?
那么中国将会如何呢？试想这样一个事实：最近的一项调查发现，在20000最富有的人在中国， 95 ％以上是直接关系到共产党的官员。如果是您，把您的赌注放在哪里？
William Nobrega is president and founder of the Conrad Group, an emerging-market strategic planning and M&A facilitation firm based in Miami. He has more than 10 years experience in this field and is widely credited for initiating global business models in emerging geographies including Brazil, India, and China. He is co-author of the recently published book, Riding the Indian Tiger: Understanding India, the World's Fastest Growing Market.
威廉诺夫雷加总裁和创始人康拉德集团，一个新兴市场的战略规划和并购提供便利公司总部设在迈阿密的。他已经超过10年在这一领域的经验和广泛记发起的全球商业模式的新兴地区包括巴西，印度和中国。他是共同作者最近出版的一本书中，骑马，印度老虎：了解印度，世界上增长最快的市场。
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在印度某个论坛里看到的。又阿三哥认为民主印度最终战胜中国。。。
[ 本帖最后由 wendy_qian 于 2008-12-10 22:53 编辑 ] |
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楼主: chencongbin1988
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发表于 2008-12-8 21:36
